Nixon, Haldeman & Ehrlichman on Domestic Council and Economic Policy

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Ah, it's nothing.

It came up a little with the draft agreement of your letter, which, on first reading, isn't acceptable.

I've sent it to Rush on my private channel to inquire his analysis of Carmen.

But it, indeed, in the two areas that I've discussed with him at the present,

It's a major, there's a major concession, sir.

He just called ten minutes ago to say he hoped he'd have a response from me, a preliminary response from me by Monday, that they're very anxious to move ahead.

And I said, well, you know, as you know, there are many parts of it that are totally unacceptable.

You recognize that?

From Berlin?

Yeah, from Berlin.

Yeah, but he said, but if you know, none of the promises are unacceptable to you.

You are birds.

And a lot of defaults are better, which is true.

I think we should use Berlin just to keep him talking.

Yeah.

To do the...

But he also expects you to do...

Does he still feel he'll have some answer on the other proposition on Monday, too?

I won't give him an answer on this until... Of course not an answer on the other.

Well, I'll show you the general...

I think I had the number wrong.

But my wife is actually working all day on silly things about skin cancer and your ears.

But the deep motive is that they don't want the United States to move ahead in any way.

That's right.

All I want them to do is clean up the ghettos.

I just swear to her every week.

It's such an ingrown...

They want to turn this country into an ingrown...

It's very selfish.

And I take nothing for any adventures of the spirit anymore.

That's France.

It's never a true soul unless she's engaged in a great enterprise.

And that's the situation with this country.

They've got to, we've got to do it because of a... Well, we can't do it, but it's a...

They did a hell of a job, the SST.

Lobby really went to work.

For us?

Yeah.

You know, I heard it on the radio every morning.

It may have been too much.

It may have oversold.

Is that right?

And a lot of commercials.

But the idea that the Soviet Union should be the only country having a supersonic transporter is just to build a novel prototype.

It's awkward.

Oh, is there just...

They've targeted unpopular support.

There just really isn't a hell of a lot of popular support for the SSG.

For the SSG, or going to the moon.

No, there was for going to the moon.

No, no.

Not anymore.

That's what I mean.

It's done.

See, that whole thing has had the American... That's what happened.

That's why Johnson's...

The last two years, as Connolly and I both agreed, was such a disaster for America because it was a period in which this country lost its self-confidence.

I said to Connolly, I said, Johnson had made the speech I did on November 3rd in 1966.

I said, he'd be sitting here today.

He says, of course he would.

He said, the difficulty is that we're having a hell of a time turning the country around and turning it around against the other people.

We're accomplishing a hell of a lot we'll do against her.

I just, I think, you know, I must say, you know, that I, it's Tiger's thing.

I said, I showed you how about we just, that our good dear, right, our neighbor just put out the money over here.

I remember we were talking about getting the Dow up to 800 by election day.

800 in November.

God damn it, it was only 780.

Now it's 9.

It was up another 250 or 650 in the day, despite the SSP.

Yeah, it went up.

But every week I continue to fight, and I'm going to continue to fight for the SSP right down the line.

So it also means...

If you hadn't done foreign policy, it would have looked evasive.

That's the point.

And it will build up out of the case much more.

We're going to build him up.

And in California, I'll do a little office press conference.

What time is the television thing going to be?

The interesting thing is how deep they are deep in the channel.

We had another two-hour session on these.

Yes, it's a logistically complicated subject.

I'm writing a memo for you to read over the weekend without figures, just to... Well, I want to read points and be very consistent.

No, but I thought you might use it for this one thing.

Oh, I see.

Not use figures, but show some of the factors.

Why we are so confident that this has been a success.

And now I really am very confident now that I've worked through these things.

And I'm ready to find out.

I've really gone through every figure on every road, and if you ask, what I made them do is to...

They were so delighted about many of the technical things.

I made them analyze what was required to support last year's level of activity in Vietnam, and what the total knowledge is.

what tonnage they would have had to put into Laos to make, to supply that, plus make up for sheer hunger, minus what was consumed in Laos by the troops they had in Laos in terms of rice, in terms of ammunition expenditure, minus what we took out with gunships, and the figures don't have to be right as long as the percentages are the same.

And it now looks as if it is impossible for them for this year to start a dry season offensive on any projection of figures.

Impossible for them to have a first and second quarter offensive this year.

And probably not possible for them to do an offensive next year before April and May.

And the details of these figures are given to you in time.

But we have had a lot of benefits that when we hadn't really analyzed properly, for example,

Before the Camposia, they'd been expecting an attack at the Laos ever since last year.

So they put in 50,000 troops, where last year they had 7,000 troops.

If you just add the rice consumption for 50,000 troops, you create a totally new consumption pattern.

And no one had done this before.

So this is the chief.

For example, once they fall out, then if you add the ammunition expenditure they've had for ten residents in that area, that's another big drain on the air.

And they supplied it immediately to keep it.

We didn't stop a single truck.

As a result of the operation, these things had to go off the, had to go off the total figures.

But then when you put it all together, actually, you're picking up 55%.

It was wildly conservative.

Up to now, they have gotten through only 8% of last year's.

But there's still a lot of the finals, so it will go up beyond that.

But I really, what we really need is that you will listen to me, and I do not need you, as I said, to start studying this on your own.

What we need is precise things that I can say that are true.

That's all.

I'll lay it out there and put it right on Howard Smith.

And we can make one hell of a summary also for April 7th.

Yes, sir.

I really must say,

Even if it ends next week, some of this stuff, because when you add the figures, what it takes to feed 50,000 people in southern Laos as compared to 8,000 last year, it makes you grow.

I like to say, you know, he's got to go out and do that in Florida.

Let me tell you, I have that feeling for other reasons.

I just know that we're going to end up with some of those stuff.

It's planned.

It's good.

And it's getting that part of it.

And it's the International Assembly.

There's such a tizzy that these people are leaving.

The other thing is, I think you're right.

These bastards, they can look at their whole car now.

We'll find out.

They're going to negotiate.

They're going to negotiate in the next three, four months.

Walter Rostov was in today.

Oh, yeah.

Of course, he's often wrong, but he's... No, I...

It's not really... Actually, his judgment said... You're pretty right.

No, hell no.

I agree with Rostov.

He makes good speeches, everything.

Walter Rostov said...

He knows we're doing the right things.

Absolutely.

He said something today.

He said, if that really takes a lot for him, he said, if we could have put you president together with Alcantara, we would have really done something.

Yeah.

That's kind of interesting.

This is an interesting... Well, the Ambrose, of course, was a tower street.

And McNamara, his way, he was installed.

What you would never have believed, never think...

uh, out of there.

By what side?

His gut feeling tells him they're getting ready to negotiate.

And to him, the true ally visit to Hanoi was a beginning of a political process rather than the opposite.

And today the Russians attack China on the radio for being willing to sell out in Vietnam.

There is the problem, and I think the problem with both.

The reason the Russians can't help us there is that they can't be tipped, and they can't be accused of selling off.

The reason the Chinese can't, they can't be accused of it.

So the hardliners in Hanoi... Of course, the trouble for Hanoi is that they've now fought for 10 years against us.

They must have lost at least 700,000 men.

They've had a whole young generation that are neither productive nor behind them for that very freaking...

I bet their birth rate, I'm serious, their birth rate must be way, way down.

Why?

Because there are no men?

There are no men there.

And all, if it ends now, they'll have very little to show for it.

The fact...

that we can now run into big operations.

At this moment, there are five and a half North and South Vietnamese divisions outside of the country, and they haven't been able to get a guerrilla movement started.

That is, they haven't got one in Cambodia.

Incidentally, what's happening in northern Laos?

Nothing.

What's the hell's the trouble there, though?

We laid in some B-52 strikes a few weeks ago.

Archie did.

But you know, it'll go home.

So does five weeks ago.

We're going to lose it again.

That's right.

Maybe we'll lose it next month.

We may lose it, but every month we begin, that rainy season closes.

When is their rainy season?

Theirs is early, isn't it?

It starts in the middle of June.

Middle of June?

It varies from where it is.

And in this campo here, there are next to no incidents.

You know, Route 4 is open.

You see when Route 4 was cut, it was recorded every day.

Now unexcorded convoys go from Sheehan to Quilton, North Bend, every day.

And there's no record in the newspaper.

No, there are no incidents.

It's all right.

It comes out in the end.

This analysis is very encouraging because I didn't go in with that expectation.

But in this analysis, they've got it, too.

And they've got to look at their hopes.

Only they have two hopes now.

The one hope is that you will collapse and the election is closed.

So you may not be so wrong in saying it's closed.

And the other one is our election.

But our election, in my judgment, is a double-edged sword for them.

Because if you get re-elected,

If you demonstrate it from their point of view, unpredictability, and now not having to be elected again, there's just no telling what you'll do.

So accurate.

That's one problem.

The second problem is if you don't give them a date before, and you leave it in very good shape, and you should get defeated, would a Democrat dare to sell it out and take the appropriate?

So I'm not sure that the 72 election is as clear a signal to them as the 68 one was.

In 68, they thought if they would get rid of Johnson, they'd have it made.

They thought they'd get hungry.

And they thought they'd get hungry.

But in 72, this isn't so clear to them.

If we get into a negotiation with them on a very crowded basis, this is a point where it should be made to them.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Actually, I think this summer, if we... if our domestic situation holds reasonably well and we don't give the deadline away, the deadline is our best bargaining strength.

Well, we've got a little memorandum of hope.

If we give it away in November or December or COVID, if we don't get a negotiation by November, we'll deal with that.

That doesn't make any sense.

No, that's right.

Then we should do it.

Well, we should.

We've got to do that.

That's the time to give it away.

Right after Jesus' election, we'll have a little meeting, assuming he gets elected.

And now it's the whole damn thing, and that's that.

And the war of day is an issue.

Like that.

Alvin.

That's the time to do it.

But if you do it now, you'll just get into the... Well, if you do it now, the main problem is right now, if you do it a little bit more, there is still a chance that you could negotiate something.

And, boy, that would be the best of all worlds.

You get that high of chances, you know, every thought is very good.

But there's some now.

There was none before.

So, on the other hand, now we wouldn't put in a political proposition while we would just negotiate with a territory.

Military mutual withdrawal.

Yes, sir.

What about the Cambodian laws?

Well, then I have to stand on that, too.

Yeah.

All right.

Or the ceasefire, at least.

Well, we can do it in one of two ways.

We can either not have mutual withdrawal, but just negotiate a ceasefire for our withdrawal and the prisoners.

It would give everybody another year

to gear themselves up without communist attacks.

And since we are going to get out anyway in a year and a half, it doesn't make any difference whether we agree to get out in a year.

Sure.

Once we are below 100,000 troops, we have no combat effectiveness left.

Right.

And well.

Yes.

Yeah, but we could do a lot of work from Thailand and from carriers if they're greatly interested.

Oh, I see what you mean.

Okay, well, but that's, that we don't see it.

I'll get that report in the morning.

Oh, yeah.

I should see if they can find a couple of helicopter pilots.

There's some bad information out there.

That's your invitation for tonight.

Where are you going?

I'm going tonight, actually.

I'm going.

Don't tell us.

No, I'm going to the end of the draft for this book.

Goodbye.

You'll be all right.

I'll read the wiretap with interest.

All right.

We got fun to see what you say to me.

Okay.

Just take your usual song line.

Yes, sir.

Did you go, John, this way?

Oh, this is, I'm sorry.

I'm talking to the wrong man.

Have you seen it?

Yes, sir.

Okay.

I think, John, that I wouldn't make more out of this than I really is.

First of all, these guys have been talking about, I mean, there's three in there, and they, of course,

and Stans because Stans doesn't have nothing to do, you know, and he wants to get into economic things so badly.

the whole group with the waste price controls, and so on.

Now, it's the only part about it that is new, and it is a significant thing, is that it's not the cabinet group that's meeting, because they've been meeting before, but that Berman's answer, I crack it, have been meeting with them.

Now, I...

I personally feel myself that this is really a test of the domestic council and of the system and everything else.

It seems to me that, and that the guy that should get into it is you rather than Schultz.

The reason I feel that is that, as I recall, we used to have the Cabinet Committee on Economic Policy.

And that gave, you know, Stans and Hardin and all these other people, none of them would know a damn thing.

You know, they're all smart men.

Look, I learned long ago that unless I was able to concentrate in a certain area, I just stayed the hell out of it.

These guys don't, I mean, here they are, burbling around about all these things, but they don't, and I've known enough about them.

I really know this.

I mean, I've been through around this track.

It's like Congress and the Senators.

That's why they...

so seldom can contribute much because they don't pay themselves experts.

Now, it seems to me, though, that we did have, if you recall, this cabinet committee, that a lot of all these people I've addressed have taken.

They may have their say.

Now, it was my understanding that that was incorporated into the domestic council, was it not?

Now, this, I think, corresponds more nearly to this cabinet committee on construction costs.

And I think that's what they're after.

I thought all of those things were disbanded with the setting up.

I don't think that construction cost thing was.

Well, maybe that's what it is.

And I suspect that's what that was.

But do you want me to invite myself to their Monday meeting?

Sure.

Let me, let me, I will split it this way, unless you have another plan.

The other thing to do is to have a, just frankly, a full, I just have a domestic council meeting, right?

Have a domestic council meeting and have the subject be the subject.

But I think it shouldn't be done until they've darn well trashed it out a bit before.

They want to make a presentation, present it to the domestic council.

But why the hell do they present it to me in the first instance?

Why not present it with Agnew?

Why George?

He's not in charge of this field.

No, but they think he's influential in this field.

He's the one that is blocking Arthur, that person, possibly Paul's desire for an income strategy.

You know, Paul.

I don't know.

This is the way I regard it.

I don't know where Paul is, actually.

And he was against it in the country strategy earlier, and he started fluttering around with it now.

Where the hell do you think he's for?

He tells me to get closer and closer to Arlington.

I haven't been sitting in on this recently, so I don't know.

But I had that impression three weeks ago.

Oh, there's going to be one.

So that's that.

Not now.

But this is a maneuver, as I read it, and it's not so much an end run of...

I see.

Anybody else?

What I was trying to figure out, John, using Henry's term, is really then running the system.

I don't know.

I mean, I thought we had a process by which this sort of thing could be discussed.

It seems to me it should be the domestic council leading them along.

How else should it be done?

Do I have to put, have a cabinet meeting for the purpose of having all these people express their views?

Is there anybody that's conscious of this?

They're talking about construction costs and don't have ice and they don't have much of a legacy in the name of God.

Why not?

They don't consider East the... Well, the real bad thing I saw in this was the fact about the administration choosing science here.

Which we haven't had up to now in any degree.

I'd love to get rid of some of those people.

Send out some more curbs.

Christ, they had to listen to the report.

Great.

It's too bad, you know, they're all the weak ones, aren't they?

You need to come down to them.

Wrong, lowly, hard, he's not strong.

And sane, he's not strong.

He's a good man, but not strong.

Blood.

Well, blood shouldn't even be there.

When is he getting out?

He's blood-solid.

I can't...

He's not a good man in the cabinet.

He's not a team.

You know what I mean?

Don't you agree?

We've got another problem with him right now.

He's deciding he wants all his post offices built by the Corps of Engineers instead of the GSA.

So he just got his real boat and went across the river to the Pentagon and signed up with the Corps of Engineers, which means we've got to lay 6,000 to 7,000 people off the GSA so we can get any more of them to do.

And the Corps of Engineers will have to lay some people on.

Well, I just haven't transferred.

Well, we could do that, but it's no pretense of asking what's the best thing overall from an administration standpoint.

It's just a unilateral deal.

Is it, you know, practices?

So we're going to try to slow it down a little bit and take a look at it.

But the president is like that now.

He just came across it in his own direction.

He did it with the Congress.

We've got it through.

Well, we can do one of several things.

I think the best thing for me to do would be to call Ronnie back and say that I did what he asked me and advised you of it.

And you said that you would like to have a full-scale domestic counseling for everybody section because it affects everybody.

And particularly Hodgson, you know, is what's involved.

And that we would set it for an early date.

We'd appreciate it if they just postponed their Monday meeting and we'd do it later in the week.

But it must be a domestic council meeting.

Yeah, we can do that.

I think it should be a domestic council meeting.

We were going to have one this week anyway, and then we put it off because it was fair to me.

So we can reschedule and say this week's next week, next Tuesday.

So we can just reschedule it.

The point is, from the standpoint of my time, I do not think I should sit in on it until you have flushed it out a bit more.

Would you agree?

I'd be glad to.

Well, I don't know.

You know, I don't know if they have any.

I think probably Monday.

I would spend some time with whoever the ringleaders are here to find what they've got.

And then I can tell you better when it's worth your time.

I doubt that it is, because it's the same old stuff that they've been going in and going over.

All right.

Stubborn stupidity is about the only way you can describe a poor man.

You're pointing in the right direction.

You should respect any stupid working for your revenue.

Sure, of course, he's hit a lot, man.

He's pretty good in the middle of the town.

Oh, he does, too.

But the argument is part of this.

Yeah.

I think if we just peel off Parker off of him, he can't be in a hotel.

Of course, there is to be a domestic counsel and argument.

We should get the hell out of this sort of thing.

I wonder if that group has met frequently, but at, you know, it's called cracking into one meeting, Arthur into another, and that kind of thing.

Because that's what cracking into is.

I did think that Arthur would meet people so often in a bunch of clubs like that.

I don't know, Arthur.

You don't underestimate Arthur.

Arthur, thank you.

He may have started it, if it's an NHL separation.

I'll find out.

But this is all... Well, we're going to see Arthur.

We'll see.

I'm kind of underestimating this.

It's not hard.

No.

No, I haven't got to say it.

Say it enough?

Yeah.

You say it.

Say it.

Tomorrow?

Can I do it tomorrow?

He wants to see you pregnant.

She knocks around you.

I'll see him probably.

But never again.

From now on, the man I'm going to see in the future is going to be Cullen.

That's the only man that can stand up to Arthur.

You know, I mean, the one that's good, you know, after all, is the traitor that's on the budget that should be fighting Arthur all the time.

Arthur should keep his goddamn head out of the budget anyway.

But Cullen recommends a private meeting where he will see what he has in mind.

Played it all out to him, just like I told him about coming.

You tell him what you want, he does it.

He told him, right off, he said, you're getting in my business, the investment tax thing.

Social Security, he said, that's my business.

He said, you do that, I expect you're going to get in my business.

Office, John, it's a, you know, on the shelves, this is,

I see it.

It's just true.

Involvement.

I mean, you know.

I've got your thoughts.

I'd be glad to have them.

Do you want to do something else?

No.

I'm not going to get robbed.

Fine.

Tell me where the vice president fits in this.

I was being planned to go and fight the vice president.

I'm asking him to chair this.

Oh.

First meeting.

He didn't do anything.

Be careful, sir.

That's my boy.

So if you have any other thoughts, if you want, I'll take them on directly.

I just don't think that I ought to get into the, you know, look, this is basically, this is tiddly-winged crappy.

You know, it's juvenile.

Maury Sands shouldn't be in it now.

I understand Harvey shouldn't be in it.

He's a college professor.

And Romney and Bogey and the rest are little boys.

But Maury Sands knows better.

He should be in it.

Arthur Berg knows better, too.

He knows a hell of a lot better.

Well, if I had to guess, I would guess the article was banning us.

And it is.

They're all collecting little grievances at this point on George's operation.

And George Schultz is, you know, I mean, you know, they're being turned down on things.

And, you know, like, I don't know, I don't think it's both of you and his damn auto insurance thing and so on.

And so it's just a typical...

How much would we really lose politically if this gun pulled me out?

I don't think you'd lose a damn thing.

I just wonder.

I don't know, maybe you'd lose a little Italian.

That's what I mean, about cigarettes.

But not...

I know, but... You'd certainly find another attachment to the action.

Oh, I don't know.

I don't know.

He gets the silly on the back.

Yeah.

I don't know.

He is an awful bore, Steve.

But he's just furious right now because we will not form an administration interdepartmental committee on oil spills for money in general.

What in the name of God?

Except he went to an oil spill conference in The Hague.

He liked it.

The President insisted I was going around the world.

Jesus Christ.

I didn't even know he was going to Europe.

I really didn't know.

Well, he would have done it if you hadn't insisted.

So, he lives around Oylston.

His name is Mr. Oylston.

He was with the administration.

And he really is, he's terribly upset.

Because we said we don't need it.

We don't need it.

We've got Robert Ellis' thing.

We've got Crane's thing.

We just don't need it.

And he's moaning infraction and tearing up and down, taking everybody's time to fix it up out of the way.

And so it's little grievances like that that accumulate and cause these guys to gather together and to find a way to get back.

They think they're getting to George.

I don't know that, but I assume that's what she said.

Well, we ought to look at that.

I don't think we need that.

We ought to find it.

Well, is this the best way to do it?

It is.

I think you're just smart enough to say that I ordered a domestic council meeting and I will not have a discounted division.

You know, red blood things are going to ask himself to come to me.

He always does, though.

He's always a nasty call to me.

Well, he's always got this superior attitude.

Well, no, there isn't.

We're not going to allow George Shultz to be craved on by these superiors.

They are not his peers.

They're certainly not his superiors.

If you've got another thought, we'll do it.

But I'm going to sit down and listen to him, you know, if he voted on the subject.

I think it's time to... No, I'll let you know when I find out how to leave.

And we'll see.

Dr. Burns, are they prepared to do their or him?

What time does that plan take?

2.30.

No, we leave here at 2.30.

The grounds, if we can land the chopper in the park, if we can't yet, we'll leave at 2.20.

That's 10 minutes to safety.

Yeah.

Well, that's safe.

Let's make our plan at 1.30.

1.30?

Yeah.

He has a luncheon.

Make it so that they find out when his luncheon begins and put it so that he has a one-hour room.

Yeah.

You've got to put it together and all that, and suddenly you've got to...

But obviously at 1.30 in the middle of the night, you have to leave at 2.30.

Well, then you have to leave on time, too, because...

I know, and we've got to be...

You ought to be able to run with it.

I understand.

Economists and all these professors, well, most professors are like, what?

Whipping, scratching, biting, biting.

It's awful.

You know, it's awful.

Economists and all of that.

I hope you follow that.

It's true.

Well, Bill Rocker's idea of a cabinet meeting is a good idea, or it's a pretty better construction.

I wrote a $500 record of something that was a good idea.

Yeah, that's why we have it.

Because I thought they were a good idea.

Every two weeks, the truck.

Bill Rocker said, have one every two weeks, and just have one more for an hour.

He said every week.

He wanted every week, he said.

We went there every two weeks.

Oh, I love that last one.

I'm horrible at this time.

Oh, totally is.

Of course, it wasn't unstructured, but it was just terrible.

Whoever picked the subjects, it reminded me of second grade, where they stood up and said how I spent my vacation.

You know, the little kid stands up and says, and then we're over here, and then we're over there.

Nobody in that room worried about Nicaragua or Kenya.

Or for that matter, they knew cars and what he's working on.

And it was unbelievable.

And then Romney, because they're reporting on what he's doing.

Well, I just don't think, I don't think it's a good idea.

I think the best thing to do is to, much as painful as it is, is to get the damn camera.

Look, I don't think you can solve the camera problem

That way, I think you have .

I agree.

I don't, but I .

Why don't we have more domestic counseling teams?

I agree with that.

And you don't have to go.

And we'll have them on policy questions, and we'll have a question for each one.

And we'll sit there and gasp about that.

And we'll round the bird.

Well, what do I see in them?

I can't see them.

That's Bill's point.

They've got to be there or something.

Otherwise...

Nixon, Haldeman & Ehrlichman on Domestic Council and Economic Policy

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Nixon Library Finding Aid

Also recorded on March 18, 1971

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