Conversation 033-047

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Hello.

Well, congratulations, Mr. President.

What's it look like at the 8 o'clock reading?

Looks to me like a very big landslide.

Just about.

I think we're going to make honest men out of the pollsters.

Where is it?

Give me a quick rundown on this.

Well, Virginia is, they projected, Virginia here at 70%.

They projected Kentucky with almost all of the votes in now at 65%.

What about Nunn?

Is he out or?

Nunn is down by about 8,000 votes with 77% of the votes in.

He could still win it, couldn't he?

You know, it's, we don't know where the votes, where the precincts are that are not being counted if they're coming from Republican areas.

I understand, I heard that David's been reporting to me, said that

Apparently Thompson didn't make it.

Thompson looks like he's down.

On the other hand, how are we doing, Georgia?

Oh, Jesus, man.

Well, the last figure, let's see, 77%.

You're just overwhelming in the south.

Obviously, man, it's very, very heavy, heavy above what we expected, above what we expected in the border states.

They're projecting Ohio at 57%, 58%.

They've already called it for us.

We've been called West Virginia for us.

NBC's projection there is 58%.

If you're 58% in West Virginia, you're going to be 60 in the nation.

NBC, privately, I have Kevin Phillips, who's been filling me out.

Here's now known as 25,000 down with 87% of the precincts in.

Looks like the Senate's gone, doesn't it?

Yeah, it does.

Well, we did our best.

Thank God we went in there.

We may have this...

Well, Scott, he has a slight lead.

Yeah, he's got a slight lead with a small number of precincts in, but he's been coming on.

I've been getting reports from Jack Marsh and others over the last week that he was— And there are good reports on Helms that he may take account.

No real—well, just a smattering of votes in so far.

But he—yeah, the reports have been very good.

He's ahead on a few votes that are in, but that's nothing.

I mean, just a couple of percent.

But I think Illinois, well, NBC has called it for you, but they only have some Chicago precincts in and not enough to tell you what the state is going to do.

They've called us winning it.

In fact, NBC has called us winning the call at 7.05.

Not only called the election for us, but called it a landslide.

And Phillips says that they are internally at NBC on the scamming

They think it's going to be right around 60, could go over 60 nationally.

Now, they don't have enough yet from the northeast or the west, but you've got the south is very heavy, so that south is very heavy.

Now, there's West Virginia.

Your ABC is projecting it at 60 percent, but Phillips says 58.

Ohio, they've quarreled at 57, although we're running 2-1 there.

On the national vote, it's running 67-32 percent with, oh, 4 million, almost 4 million votes in.

It's running very consistently, 67-32.

That's mostly South.

Well, you've got Indiana in there.

What's it show?

Let me see.

Indiana, we did handsomely.

I feel it would be good.

It has to be good.

They're projecting 64% to 65% win, and you've carried the governor in on your coattails.

It was not expected to win.

If you remember, he's running against, what's his name, the former governor, Welch.

Welch was a very popular Democratic governor.

So you've carried the governor in in Indiana.

seven percent of the precincts and you look like you're caring it'd be interesting to see how uh how illinois comes out it'd be nice if we could do a little better than percy there oh boy would i love to in the in the first very early returns i only saw i didn't matter of fact they came on so damn fast i didn't get him down percy was running just a little bit ahead of us i don't think i think we're going to run better than percy the democrats for nixon ran a fabulous ad out there yesterday which said the democrats before you

to engage your ballot before you—how did they say it?

I've forgotten how they said it.

First pull the lever for President Nixon before voting for Democratic candidates.

And then my reports from Marzullo's ward and others were that we were doing extremely well in some of the Cook County precincts.

We just may surprise the president.

It doesn't make any difference, just so we do it.

Well, you've got to, what it's obvious now, what about any northeastern state, Maine, Vermont, any of those?

Vermont, they've caught up with 70%, which is just what our polls showed.

New Hampshire, they've called.

And what about Powell?

Running slightly behind on the first returns that I saw, but only Concord, New Hampshire, was in.

That's bad for him.

Yes, it is.

No, no, Concord's a bad area for him.

That's right.

Concord's a liberal area, and that shows the independent Republican winning the governorship.

If you projected that, it's too early to tell in New Hampshire.

We will have...

We should start getting Connecticut.

We'll get Connecticut at 830.

Connecticut will tell us what the northeast is, and I think you can...

I think once we have... You figure Connecticut 55, 45, or a little better.

We'll do better than that.

Now, I noticed one of the networks said 55, 45.

Somebody told me, but I thought, good God, we do a little better than that in Connecticut.

No, we'll do better than that in Connecticut.

We'll do, I would say, very close to... We should do close to 60 in Connecticut.

We should be 58 to 60.

And if we are, then I think you can pretty well figure...

And if Illinois holds around 60-40, or 58, Ohio at 57, then you've got 60% nationally.

We'll make honest men out of the pollsters.

One hell of a landslide, Mr. President.

I give them... How about Massachusetts?

Got that yet?

No, the polls just closed there at 8.

And the only returns we'll have will be city machines.

There aren't many machines out there.

Yeah, but we can...

pretty well project from those.

I think I'll be able to get us a fairly accurate— Well, you might say we've got to lose one.

Let's lose that one.

Yeah.

That's the best one to go.

I think they're in Wisconsin, yeah.

I think they've got Illinois—no, nothing from Wisconsin.

Yeah, they're projecting Illinois, but only on the basis of 20,000 votes, and that isn't enough to give us a margin.

Well, yes, they—oh, Jesus.

CBS's estimate is 62% for us in Illinois.

And, well, then you've got Wisconsin.

Oh, hell yes.

If you're anywhere near 60%.

Oh, they're projecting Percy at 60%.

My God, isn't that great?

I've had two sneaky hunches in this campaign.

One is that we were going to pull this jackass Scott in Virginia, and the other is we'd run ahead of Percy.

But if we could get Scott in Helms...

And not lose none.

Goddamn, in Kentucky, I don't know.

Do you think he's gone?

I would say, I would have to say so, yes, sir.

It's a damn shame, because that's one that...

I hear they're projecting North Carolina.

No, they're not projecting it.

Galifianakis is ahead slightly.

But there's no projection on it.

Again, it's awful.

How does it show us in North Carolina?

Oh, they've already given it to us.

But how much percentage?

Percentage-wise, I think it was...

Let's see, I made a note of that one.

60s, high 60s.

Florida, they projected us at 69, Georgia at 77.

What was the trouble with Thompson?

I guess that mail thing sort of killed him, huh?

Well, I think the mail thing was very bad for him.

Mr. President, I think he's not the brightest guy in the world.

Of course, a lot of those candidates aren't, unfortunately.

But also, we're not going to worry about a Senate.

We're going to pick up New Mexico.

I think we'll pick up Bartlett.

We'll get two out there.

If you get two out there, if we hold, of course we lose none.

That's the problem.

Chafee, I don't think we're going to be able to hold him.

You don't really?

No, sir.

Have you had a late poll?

No.

The last poll I had was the middle of last week.

But just knowing the nature of that state and the advantage that...

Be lucky to hold the Senate where we are then.

I would, well... No, no, no, that's a gain.

We could pick up a couple.

We may have some surprises in here, you know.

It's hard to... We're picking up some House seats here and there, I notice.

One in Indiana, one in Tennessee.

Yeah, I think we got one in Kentucky.

I believe we had one in Kentucky.

Well, I think we'll pick up in the South.

We should pick up...

Well, no, running this strong, God, we'll do better than that.

You pick up quite a few in Alabama, I'm sure.

You might pick up a couple in Florida?

Yeah, two or three.

Oh, yes.

There are five new cities.

One or two in Mississippi?

I would say at least two in Mississippi.

We'll pick up one in Louisiana.

I think that full of train may pull it through.

So we could pick up a good batch in the south.

And I think we have, of course, we'll get four in Connecticut if that goes as big as Valley Preschool thinks it will.

Unfortunately, the candidates we campaigned for aren't doing very well, are they?

Well, you don't... JP loses if, of course, Thompson is down.

Helms still got a chance.

Oh, yes, Helms, they're only 2% of the precincts in North Carolina.

I wouldn't try to call Helms at this point.

uh you never can tell about kentucky it is a a way i remember with houston martin on occasion runs way behind them and he comes in in the end yeah i remember it was those eastern uh counties are all ours yeah they come in the last that's right that's right uh we might do that that could be pulled so that would be the only

Well, let's see, Griffin and our foe in South Dakota.

I think Griffin will win.

Oh, Griffin will win.

Oh, hell yes.

But South Dakota, well, it's a long shot.

Could lose that.

That would be down two, up four.

So we'd have, if Bartlett and Domenici come in and Scott wins.

But if you get Domenici and if you get, well, you've got to win Scott, you've got to win Domenici, and you've got to win Bartlett.

That's three, and you're down.

South Dakota, and that's it.

Oh, and Kentucky.

Kentucky, too.

Well, that's one up.

One up, and maybe if we then pull in Helms, that gives us two up.

Helms or Chafee.

Or Chafee.

Yeah, oh, hell, I'm just guessing on Chafee.

I don't know.

Chafee could win.

And DeSimone, I'm sure, will win.

That gives us a pull.

All right.

We've elected the Republican candidate for governor in Vermont, who is hanging on your coattails like crazy.

We picked up a house seat in Maine, apparently.

Is Maine in?

Do we have that projection yet?

No, sir.

But they told me, when I talked to them up there today, Bangor, that this young Bangor mayor, Cohen, bright young, bright young Jewish fellow.

Our man?

Our man.

Yeah, our, he'll win.

Yeah, apparently he's doing, they were projecting him, I mean, they were predicting up there that he would, he'd win it quite handily.

And Margaret, they thought, would just squeak it out.

They think that she's going to barely make it.

The poll that you saw was of only certain counties in the eastern part of the state, and they think she'll make it by a close one.

Well, where do we get Connecticut?

I figure Connecticut 80,000, and that's damn good.

And 80,000, you know, is a landslide, and that'll pick us up two or three there, won't it?

It'll pick us up, too, 80,000.

At all?

I think so.

But we're going to do better than that, I think, you see, in Connecticut.

I don't know.

Tommy Miskell is an awful good politician.

I'd give him—I'd give us one— Another place where we could pick some up in New Jersey if we got enough of a swing.

Yeah, exactly.

There are three—as a matter of fact, there are three seats there that could go up—we could pick up one or two close ones in Pennsylvania, as I recall.

We've got a couple of possibilities in New York.

We may do very well in the House, we'll just see.

But certainly from your standpoint, what is your feeling that the

don't win the House and the Senate, I suppose that's the way they'll piss on the damn thing.

Well, no, I don't think so.

It's all been discounted.

I mean, I haven't seen anyone predict us winning the Senate or the House.

I said we had to fight for the Senate, and maybe he could do it.

They've, in the House, said no chance at all.

That's right.

So no one's really predicted that.

Also, we've got Jerry Ford's little deal that might help, you think?

Oh, hell yes, if we get to...

If he gets those 10 swingers.

Yeah, but if we get within 12, then he's got something he can...

He can work with us.

We might bring the house over.

I think they've discounted it also in a sense, Mr. President, that they've talked about nothing but ticket splitting.

You know, that's been the big thing.

Well, anyway, we'll wait and see.

Looks like a great night coming.

Bye.

Thank you, sir.