Nixon phone call with Colson on 1972 campaign and Polling data

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Colsoncannot be going on all over the country. Here's here's Don Rodgers trip report this week, just came on to my desk this morning. He was in Columbus, Indianapolis, and Chicago and he said just polling the rank and file and incredible results. I mean way mammoth leads among, among the

Colsonthe union leaders that he was talking to. They've been, you know, they go around and, and sample in their in their areas before they come out. Billy Martin, the head of the Operating Engineers, Illinois, 12,000 members, he endorsed yesterday morning, and did so after he took a poll of his membership, and he said his locals came back

Colsonalmost unanimous, all, all but unanimous as his report, uh, for the President. And, and we had a team we had a poll of the Teamsters Union in the Queens, five-to-one. Uh, they did a they they did a straw poll as they came into their meeting, five-to-one for us in the Queens. Well, you you just can't get these kind of things going on across the country everywhere.

ColsonUh, Baltimore Building and Trades Council endorsing.

NixonYou know, I am particularly pleased, too, that, uh, the McGovern people are arguing about whether they should go for the, uh you know, for the more intelligent suburbs or for the blue collar, and they don't know which to do. Well, let me say, I hope to Christ they go for the suburbs. You see, that's the kind of thing we rejected.

ColsonWell, geez. Exactly right.

NixonRemember our, we, as you, we went around the track on that, and that's where the Domestic Council boys, you know, they Harper and his, uh, stuff said, "No, our real strength is out there in those suburbs, and we should play that." To hell, if we don't get those people, it's just too bad.

ColsonThat's right.

NixonI mean, they sure, a lot of them are, are weak on the war and the rest and, uh, a lot of them may go, they may go there, but they they aren't going to, they can't go with McGovern because of intelligence.

ColsonNo, that's exactly right.

NixonSo, I just hope McGovern goes for them.

ColsonOh, Jesus, I read that, and I thought, "Isn't that delightful?" I can just hear the debate going on. Gary Hart is saying the wave of the future, and it's all out there in the suburbs, and,

NixonYeah.

Colsonthat's right,

Colsonand Frank Mankiewicz is saying, "The hell it is. The Democratic strength is the pork chop vote." And I I just, I can hear the debate.

NixonMhm.

ColsonAnd, uh, for the best thing is if they keep arguing about it, go for neither, but, McGovern is not doing, is not doing anything in the ethnic areas. Now, he'll he'll try, but He's going to do Polish and, uh, Italian things this week, of course.

NixonHe's going to do Polish and, uh, Italian things this week, of course.

ColsonYeah, well, he'll try, uh, and so he makes a little bit of inroads. My God, we're still, uh In this In that Harris demographic, the Italian and Irish vote, we're winning by better margins than we're winning nationally. It's just,

Colsonuh, but the thing that, uh Personally, I put more stock in the, uh, polls that you get around the country, uh,

NixonI think you're right about that. I haven't thought of that so much, but I think these polls around the country are terribly important, you know, the ones in-depth that the news guys do, and so forth, knowing that they're not really trying to help us. They're really reporting what they find.

ColsonWell, they're going out talking to people. I mean, it's like Doug Hallett going into the bar in Inman Square. I mean, you're, you're going to find out what people are thinking. And, uh, I don't believe was, and, and Harris, uh, by the way, uh, doesn't dispute this. The, this is basically this is Scammon's thesis that you, you have to go out and find out what the people are thinking, and you have to take key precincts and really examine them in-depth because

NixonMm-hmm.

Colsonwhen you do a national poll, you, you're not necessarily, you, you just can't tell today that that the demographics are that good. You can argue the statistics all you want, but if you have huge pockets of strength for one candidate or another, it can distort it.

NixonYeah.

ColsonUh, here's a Hardin County, uh, Kentucky poll.

NixonHardin County?

ColsonHardin County, Kentucky.

NixonThat's tough mine-working country. I've been there.

ColsonOkay, 88% Nixon, 11% McGovern, 1% Schmitz.

NixonGood Christ.

ColsonAnd, uh, so you just, I mean that's That's good country. Those are good, you know, Kentucky people who have still make moonshine, carry their flintlock muskets, and

ColsonWell, the paper down there endorsed Dee Huddleston, who is running against, uh, Nunn, and endorsed you, and published its poll, and it wasn't done to anybody yet, although our friends had been down there.

NixonI see.

ColsonAnd, uh, you know, we're we're just carrying the, uh, we're just we're just sweeping the goddamn place, so it There's too much of this going on around the country for me to, uh, think that anything But, Chuck, the thing that I think is important is that this, the reason that the Gallup thing, and, and this is the last one I even want to hear about,

NixonYeah.

ColsonMm-hmm.

Nixonthe reason this is important now is that the McGovernites, the New York Times endorse the assholes, and all the rest, and the news news magazines are trying to give them a a a build-up and everything now, the networks and the rest. Now,

NixonI really I think this could this could be a hell of a crusher for them. What do you think?

ColsonOh, I think it is, Mr. President.

NixonUh, because they're they've been counting on it, you know, and they've been working on Gallup. They put him through the wringer up there before the committee. And he still comes up with this. And they know that he leans to them on the war, too. That's right. Or, do you agree?

ColsonThat's right. That's right. Oh, did they ever?

ColsonI agree totally. I think that I think that what this is is with both national posters showing a 28 point spread, with Salinger who, after all, got got yesterday a hell of a lot on national press, showing a 41 point spread, with all of these local Yankelovich earlier showing uh Yankelovich huge, 39 point spread.

NixonYankelovich earlier showing uh

NixonAll right.

ColsonNow, somewhere, you know, in all of this, it it's just it's just so big, So maybe it's So, maybe we end with 20. So, what's wrong with that? Hell, that's That's Goldwater-Johnson uh, margin. Almost, 22. 22.

NixonSo maybe it's So, maybe we end with 20. So, what's wrong with that?

ColsonHell, that's That's Goldwater-Johnson uh, margin. Almost, 22. 22.

Nixon22, yeah.

ColsonBut the, the point is, Mr. President, that while I look at my little chart here and I see 38 days, and I think, "My God, that's a long time. When you're ahead, it's a long time." They're looking at 38 days saying, "What in hell can we do in 38 days to turn this thing around?" I mean, that's They've got to knock off, uh, almost a point a day.

ColsonAnd they can't do that. I mean, it's just, well, they they might do it if if the feelings weren't very hard across the country. My

NixonThat is the key point.

ColsonMy thesis is that, uh, that the, there's a, that the, the, decision is all set in with the public. They've made their minds up.

ColsonHe said, "McGovern closes the gap." That's the way, that's what they'll try, but,

Colsongood God, you can't say that after Harris had his a week ago

NixonYeah.

Colsonwith the same margin.

NixonYeah.

ColsonNow, they'll play this as a confirmation of Harris, that uh, there's been a slight movement, but it's uh, but, but 28 points is a massive lead on the first day of October, and that's when this'll be published, the first day of October.

NixonYeah.

Colson28 points separating the candidates. Uh, that is, that's right back where the, yeah.

NixonI guess it didn't quite, what, what uh, '64 was, was it, what was that?

ColsonI think it was about that.

NixonYou mean, how it ended up?

ColsonWell, no, no.

NixonOh, not how it ended up. Yeah, that's what they, they were showing around.

ColsonWell, here we are, October 18th, uh, Gallup was 64-29.

Nixon64-29.

ColsonYeah, on October 18th.

NixonSee, Gallup said uh, missed '64 quite a bit.

ColsonOh, yeah. Yeah.

NixonWhat did he come, what'd he come up with then? What did Harris have then?

ColsonI don't have the Harris figures for '64.

NixonWhat were Gallup's other figures in October? He never did show Goldwater more than 31, did he?

ColsonNo, uh, 32. September 27th, he had uh, 68-32.

Nixon68-32.

ColsonOn September 27th.

NixonJust go on, and then by October, he had him what? 64-29?

Colson64-29.

NixonThat was his last poll?

ColsonNo, November 2nd, he had 61-32.

Nixon61-32.

ColsonSee, he had a steady decline for Johnson from September 27th.

NixonYeah. Johnson went-

Nixonwent from, what? But it was 61, what? 32?

Colson61-32 on November 2nd.

NixonYeah.

NixonAnd look what it ended up.

ColsonThat's right. The entire undecided went almost-

NixonNow in the case of uh, what was his uh, what was his uh, first October 1 poll? 68?

ColsonUh,

Colson32, right. That was September 27th, 68-32.

Nixon68-32, yeah, right. See, Johnson started at a higher level, that's- they always do it, but-

ColsonThat's right. That doesn't make any difference.

ColsonBut, you see, you see, as a matter of fact, this is interesting, also. Uh, 33 points McGovern has now. Goldwater had 32.

NixonMhm.

Colsonthe same period.

NixonMhm, correct.

ColsonSo, you know, that, so maybe it's a little closer than it was in '64, but, my God, what a landslide that was. And that, and there was never the feeling of that closing, ever. I remember that-

NixonAnd that year, oh, Jesus, we

Nixonwe knew it was a goner.

ColsonSure, all the way. And they know it's a goner, and uh-

NixonAnd also we want to remember too, in that year, Chuck, nobody was tilting the polls to Goldwater. They were all tilting them to Johnson.

ColsonExactly.

NixonRight?

ColsonExactly.

NixonAt the present time, if there's any tilting, it's being done to McGovern, except for, you know, Gallup and Harris are both tilting them to McGovern.

ColsonOh, we know that, and we know that for another reason, Mr. President, that uh, Teeter is finding no change where he's going back and checking,

NixonSindlinger finds no change.

Colsonso, and Sindlinger finds no change. So, and, and Sindlinger's raw data for Christ sakes, he had uh, 2,800 interviews this past week, and we have a 40 point lead. Now, that's 2,800 interviews, he can miss some of the blacks, and he can miss some of the poor people, and, but, but he's,

Colsonhe just is not off uh, that, all that much. He's, he maybe, maybe it's 38 points, or maybe it's 37 points, but, but it, but it will, it's the trend that counts. It's the big, that we are today at the biggest bulge that we've had, and we've had it steadily now for, for four weeks.

ColsonIt hasn't showed any sign of moving, at all.

ColsonSo there's been, so even if Sindlinger is inaccurate, even if his 40 points is inaccurate, the point is that over the last four weeks, there's been no closing, and uh, that's what is important. There hasn't been that, that uh,

Colsonpoint when you can almost sense in a poll when it begins to go the other way. That hasn't happened. That's what, that's what uh,

Colsonthat's what tells me that both Harris and Gallup are saying, "Well, uh, we just can't believe that uh, that it can be this way. Just can't believe it." And uh,

Colsonso they're, they're uh, they're hedging themselves. They're protecting themselves. They're worrying about their credibility. Gallup was very sensitive on those hearings on the Hill.

NixonWell, Harris went the other way. Harris could- He said the hell with you.

ColsonOh, yeah, well, he, well, what he said is that a lead like this cannot be overcome, and uh,

NixonYeah.

Colsonthen uh, he caught a lot of heat. The New York Times wrote a nasty piece, and then, and then he said, "Well-"

NixonThe Times wrote a nasty piece?

ColsonOh, yeah. They, they stuck a lot of it, that, you know, they Said, said, "Look at Dewey," yeah. Yeah. Well, they, well, and saying that it was uh, uncharacteristic of a pollster to say something like, I forgot, they used a phrase that,

NixonYeah.

Colsonthat I know got under Lou's craw, and so, then, he said, "Well, I- The only thing I-" He said, "I'd be afraid if I were President Nixon that with such a massive lead, maybe people wouldn't come out and work and vote." That kind of thing. Well, they, they are hedging themselves, but,

Colsonno, I- I'm very pleased with this. My, I tell you, the one fear that I had uh, Mr. President, was not with the results, because I know I'm right with what's happening in the country. I just feel it,

NixonThat's right.

Colsonand I, and I can study it, and I can, I know the kind of people to talk to, and, and I, in, since 1956, I have never had a, I've always felt a campaign and sold it about right, but

ColsonI know what's going on in the country. My fear was that Gallup, wanting to make news,

Nixonwould trim it a little more.

Colsonwould trim it a little more than Harris in order to be able to say, "Gallup finds further Nixon erosion." You see, and that would give him a big headline.

NixonNo, this isn't, but, well, it won't be interpreted that way, not Oh, hell no. No, but my fear was he would, he would cut our lead to, say, 24 points, and uh,

Colsoneven though that's mammoth, people would say, "Well, went from 34 to 28, now to 24, you know, there's movement." But they- no one will take this as movement. This is a uh, a confirmation of a massive lead, um, and uh,

NixonYeah.

Colsonyou know, if you- anybody in politics looking at this, is going to say, "Well, if that's the best that uh, that McGovern can get out of being out on the road every day, uh, every day, started his advertising early, uh, has been on the road every day, has tried to get into three media centers a day, has had enormous exposure,

Colsonand if that's the best he can do in 30 days to try to close uh, the guy is uh, the guy is a, a goner, because

NixonYeah.

Colsonhe would, he would have to uh, have done better than this with a month of campaigning. He would have to have, if he had any shot at it at all.

NixonMhm.

ColsonNo, I think this is good, I'm delighted, eh.

NixonWell, actually, I think it's uh, it's certainly going to be a, one uh, I, I think it'll be a belt to them. They're going to, they're going to have to really do a lot of uh, you know, squealing around about trying to

Colsonexplain them off.

Nixonexplain them off.

ColsonWell, they can put out Curry, and they can put out Caddell, Yeah, we know Curry's- Yeah, and they can put out Caddell, and stuff, to try to, Yeah. give themselves, but inside, they have to know what's happened to them.

NixonSure, and also they, if they have honest polls, Caddell's finding the same thing.

ColsonOh, sure. And they have to be running into this, Mr. President. They-

ColsonWell, not only that, but they have to be hearing the things from the field we're hearing. I just, I talked this morning with Herb DeSimone, he called me up for some information. Good, how's he doing? Oh, he's, he's doing, he's two to one.

NixonGreat.

ColsonGreat. But I said, "Herb, what are you finding up there?" He said, "Well, it doesn't matter where you go," he said, "you walk through the shoe plants," he said, "you go into the, the uh, machine tool, uh, Brown & Sharpe, and" he said, "everybody talks about, they're upbeat on the President."

ColsonHe said, I, he said, "You may carry this state so big you're just going to s- surprise people." I said, "Herb, I, I have the feeling that they've all made up their minds."

ColsonHe said, "Oh, Christ, yes." He said, "They are just solid." He said, "I-" He's, Herb's

NixonSolid.

ColsonHe said it's a very strong feelings, very anti-McGovern.

ColsonAnd I said, "What is it, dope, or pot, or permissiveness, or abortion?" And he said, "No, no," he said, "it's partially that." He said every now and then you get somebody who is specific.

ColsonIt's just a general feeling they don't like this guy. And he said they kind of think he's kooky.

ColsonAnd he said that they He said that's the word you hear most. Yeah, he's kooky.

NixonThe kooky. And and, frankly, the uh getting the "don't like" also has a lot to do with it. A lot of people thought Go- Goldwater was a little kooky, but eve- but eve- but they were

ColsonDamn few people didn't like Goldwater.

NixonThat's right. Did you know Did you You know, you hear people that hate McGovern. Yep. And of course, I'm not saying a few hate me, but my point is I very seldom found anybody that hated Goldwater. Did you?

ColsonNo.

NixonThat's right. He was an attractive fellow. That was it.

ColsonAttractive, honest and, and they also He had a little bit of the non-politician. You know, he I remember a picture in the campaign of Goldwater on his horse in Arizona and and he was kind of the non-politician, that's right. He had that going for him, which McGovern started with, but then blew it completely.

ColsonBut Herb made another point that I thought was very interesting. I said to Herb, "Is it all anti-McGovern?" He said, "No, no." He said, "There's a lot of"-

NixonThat's the point that we want to get across to the extent that our people can. What did he say again?

ColsonHe said, "very pro-Nixon feelings." He said, "Very strong for the President." He said, "There's a feeling that he's really done a damn good job, that he works hard at it, that he's uh that" Yeah, he said, "of course" Herb said that "the economy's better now," and he said, "people are feeling pretty good and they're kind of happy with the country," and he said, "there's a Herb said, "There's just a hell of a different mood in this state."

NixonThat's right.

ColsonAnd he said the Jewish community in Rhode Island has uh has locked on. He said that's that's solid. I said, "I don't believe it." He said, "It's absolutely solid." I Of course, I know the areas he's talking about. He was telling me where he was this week, and he said, "They're just they're just absolutely solid." He said the Democratic politicians are demoralized. He said the mayor of Providence is doing nothing, the state chairman is doing nothing. He said they're not lifting a finger. Now, McGovern has to be hearing this, and uh

Colsonhe has to be getting these kind of reports. I'm sure Mankiewicz is is a hard-headed guy and uh is hearing this. I know goddamn well Larry O'Brien's hearing it and has to be hearing it because it's these are these are the same kind of reports he would be Larry would be getting, and and they must feel pretty goddamn desperate.

NixonMhm.

ColsonAnd I don't This This This poll is sure as hell going to dampen them. They're going to say, "Well, it it confirms we gained." It's about, yeah, three points, Jesus.

NixonYeah. Yeah.

ColsonReally, so they turned another three points and the margin is not 28, but 25.

NixonOh, sure. Well, they can they'll say they gained six actually, you see, because of that. But that doesn't mean a damn thing. What what does it damn it? It doesn't, Mr. President.

NixonSo they gain so they next time they gain 12 even. What the hell does that do?

ColsonWell, they're not going to.

NixonSo So then, of course not. What the hell are they going to do to do it? That's their point.

ColsonAnd I think I think there's one thing about this poll what makes me very happy, I think, was was Gallup showing the same as Harris. And Harris going into the field this coming Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday is going to keep Harris a little-

NixonYeah.

ColsonWell, Harris is going to stay about where he is. I have I just I don't know, but I have a hunch that he'll Keep better.

NixonHe'll lock, yes. He'll lock in, and particularly if you're sure Harris knows what's in Harris' mind, because, you know.

ColsonOh, I keep keep him abreast of that, and Right.

Colsonand I No, I think uh I think that's what Harris will find out. Look. Yeah.

ColsonBut that will that will really crush them. Jesus Christ, that's uh a week from next Monday, that will come out. That's the 9th. And if that shows that it's that it's stayed right at 28, 29, 27, that that'll kill them, because then they'll then they'll realize that all all that happened was that uh following the Republican convention, a little bit of the normal settling back. What the hell, he rose.

ColsonYou You've You've got to look back, too, at what Where we were, yeah.

ColsonWell, at a low point, remember, at of during the Eagle- right during the Eagleton affair, Mhm. we were 57-34 in Harris. But we thought that was awfully good, didn't we?

NixonOh, my god, we was talking about 23 points. That's right.

ColsonAnd that was and that was in the first week in August, when he was, if he were ever in deep trouble, We thought we thought he couldn't go any lower.

ColsonThat's right.

ColsonAnd yet today, two months later, he's lower.

NixonThat's right.

ColsonSee, that was 57-34, and take this one at 61-33. That's right. And in Harris We're four points up, he's one point down from the 1st of August, compared to the 1st of August. That's right.

ColsonAnd he has not only not gained, he's lost since the lost since the depths of the Eagleton affair. If you had an honest press guy, that's what he would report. He would report that that the guy is in worse shape today than he was at the depths of the Eagleton fiasco, when eve-

NixonYou know, it's an interesting thing that the uh that I saw Frank Church was uh now squealing about the media, claiming that uh that, they had they had been so cruel about Eagleton. What the hell did they expect the press to do? I mean, the first time they ever dropped a vice-president candidate in history, the press the press had to write that. Oh, hell.

ColsonAnd and shock treatments, and the whole bit.

ColsonYeah. Well, what they're pissed off at is really the way they they covered the the McGovern uh flip-flop, you know, the thousand McGovern's handling of it, yeah. McGovern's handling of is what was what was so gross. I mean, he went from Yeah. 1,000% behind the guy to And then knifed him.

ColsonWell, and forced him, and it was obvious he was forcing him out because That's right. of the way Eagleton performed, and and that crazy dame, Westwood, going on calling for

NixonIncidentally, we haven't heard a thing from her lately, have we? Every now and then What in the hell is she doing?

ColsonWell, every now and then you hear something from her. Mhm. Not uh I think they probably found that she was a liability, don't you think?

ColsonOh, yeah. Absolutely.

NixonThey're locking her up. Cuz I think they her mannishness, Chuck, I think, just probably turned off men and women.

ColsonThat's right. Well, it What Well, sure, what it does is confirm I mean, Yeah. this party tomorrow is for both men and women, but they're You know, they're both homos and lesbians. I mean, they're Put that dame on, and you That's what the American people of a a large majority, when you go into these blue-collar precincts, a large majority, frankly,

Colsonand some will focus on dope or amnesty or kooks or fags. I mean, they'll they'll It bothers people, and That's right.

ColsonSo, every time they put Westwood on, hell, uh

Nixonthat's that's uh Yeah.

NixonIncidentally, on the fag thing, well, a lot of them, like, many will say it, a lot more will not say it, but they think of it. When they hear McGovern, they they think he's faggy. Uh-huh. You know, because of, you know, the Liberace thing. And also, Shriver acts so faggy, doesn't he? You know,

ColsonSwishy. He He He is swishy, you know.

ColsonHe really does.

ColsonThe two of them do, Mr. President. They're, well They're just too Put it this way: they're not masculine in the in the sense that a Teddy Gleason can look at them and say, "There's a real man." And uh That's right.

NixonThat's right.

ColsonThey And the But they But they say that about you. That's the uh that's what Teddy Gleason Oh, Teddy Gleason on television on that marvelous clip out of New York saying, "He's the He's We've got the right man at the right time for this country." Oh, it was great. That's That's really great. Our people look at that and say, "Gee, what a what a what an inarticulate fellow he is." Well,

Colsonmillions of people are inarticulate.

NixonMillions of people, that gets through to them. That's right. That's right. It's the It's the common man. It's the taxi driver business. That's correct.

NixonWell, anyway, this'll help. Have some fun. You can You might uh, you might uh give Scammon a call if he's got any re- uh uh any anything to report. You can call me back, okay?

ColsonI'll call him right now. Yes, sir. Thank you.

NixonNo hurry. No hurry. Right.

Nixon phone call with Colson on 1972 campaign and Polling data

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Nixon phone call with Colson on 1972 campaign and Polling data

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Also recorded on September 30, 1972

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