On August 9, 1971, President Richard M. Nixon, Ellsworth F. Bunker, Henry A. Kissinger, White House photographer, Stephen B. Bull, unknown person(s), and George P. Shultz met in the Oval Office of the White House from 5:44 pm to 6:18 pm. The Oval Office taping system captured this recording, which is known as Conversation 558-010 of the White House Tapes.
Transcript (AI-Generated)This transcript was generated automatically by AI and has not been reviewed for accuracy. Do not cite this transcript as authoritative. Consult the Finding Aid above for verified information.
I think New Jersey had some.
Well, we are.
We were waiting at your instructions.
We felt very, very heavily in California.
I think it may be that we overdid it because some of the people who look at it, the mothers that sent me, are asking for trouble by going so heavy there.
So maybe we should back off a little bit from that.
But we've just noticed practically all of it in California.
Well, when you come down to a church, it's the major source of our trouble.
We look in terms of numbers that are unemployed, because it affects the national number.
It isn't just California that affects the national number.
California, whatever it is, 9% in Southern California just knocks the hell out of us.
Well, that's an important trouble area, but there are others that have also been hit.
Michigan...
The Washington-Seattle area, New Jersey, I guess, has a few.
And Kansas, I guess, has some.
So they're scattered around.
Scattered fewer than those in California, I guess, basically.
Just say there's more aerospace.
And he's not going to even throw something to Washington.
He's not going to mean much, but I don't do it.
That's justification for saying you want Washington.
It's the aerospace...
Well, anyway, we'll see you tomorrow.
All right.
Now, I will, uh, I will give after this word that it's very driving for you to discuss it with me in the comments, and that's all.
Well, I'll have to wait for it.
But you won't have to go that far.
I don't trust you to lose me.
I don't want to see you.
Just say that I'm thinking of something in terms of down the road.
Say it.
Oh, my God.
Sometimes I walk over there and I want a word with you, but I would like to ask you as to how he would operate again up there.
He has written your own memorandum earlier, but I'd like you to play this thinking about how he would set up the board, what he would call it, and that sort of thing.
How are you?
Good to see you.
Good to see you.
Good to see you.
Is that okay?
Oh, yeah.
First in the United States, second beyond that.
Henry's got a win?
Yes, Henry's got a win.
Is he as much of a conspirator as people say he is?
Henry?
Yeah.
Oh, he's the best.
Oh, good.
Well, I ought to say, we did appreciate your masterful handling of this card.
I don't know if anybody over there
Yes, he called me right away.
He said he thought it was very constructive.
Of course, he had to split the time open to bring this piece to Vietnam and also to this part of the world.
But he didn't have a call.
No, he put his telephone, he just heard it, you know.
He made it a statement too, didn't he?
Yes, he just said it.
Well, actually he told me when I called on him, but after what, he thought it closed the relations to China.
He said it would help with the North Sea.
Yes.
And he said that some of it, my son, was for love.
Thank you, I think, for finding it.
No problem.
I think he makes a very good point in one respect.
The reason he has for not vetoing is that we will not lay the proper precedent for him.
His view is that once we have made the other rules that we're planning,
But then, you just veto in a minute, and throw the ball right back over to the Congress.
But here, to do it now, he thinks there's some balance about it.
Now that's his argument for whatever it's worth.
And I hate to roll over on those bills, I must say, but I still want to see tomorrow what the congressional chances are if we do veto.
Okay.
Yeah.
Now, he said, Saturday when I talked to him, he was speculating too about how things might develop.
That if we do get some agreement of peace, some agreement with the other side, that we have a guarantee.
He said, I think that the two important countries are the United States and China.
And a guarantee.
Robert doesn't know this, but his reasoning being that the Chinese are there in Asia, and we are in Asia, and the Soviet are along.
You know, Henry, the point about the Soviet in here, Henry, it's one of these pathological pro-Indians around here.
Yes, that's good.
I always trouble keeping in mind, but anyway, the reason is...
I have the right to believe it, don't you think, Henry?
The thing is about the Indian environment, I would be damned concerned about having my great and good friend be the Soviet, and the Chinese sitting out there, and the United States, the hell of a long way off now.
Did you see any investment?
Oh, yeah, I did.
I said to the Jew, if you want to have yourself abused, and I decided to do the same thing.
I just want to tell you, we've been talking all day.
Just a few hours.
Just a few hours.
He said I want to take him home.
I'm starting over to the church soon.
I don't know if he can.
He hasn't accepted your invitation.
He's kind, you know.
Well, that was nice.
Thank you for your care.
Thank you.
Well, that's good, that's not.
It's not, it's not, it's not, because... She would, she would respond to the invitation.
She would blow the water before the invitation.
That's good.
Well, yes, the way you talk to them, they're just ridiculous, those goddamn Indians.
As you know, they're just as much false as, frankly, as the Pakistanis, in my opinion.
They want to cause this trouble.
Well, but, yeah, yeah, it's not me, it's not the whole thing.
Christ sakes, just imagine our own position.
Murder is the death.
What did he announce?
He was going to try for what?
Try for treason, for possession.
Is that true?
He can't do that.
I told him that, but I think it's going to end up like this.
Unless he's not trying to learn to love me.
...was to expel so many Hindus from East Pakistan.
It's a good cause.
Well, can we still avoid a war?
Yes.
Now, come to Vietnam.
Give me a brief summary of what you concluded first in the election.
My question is, of course, the field of the election.
I think it was quite stupid in his hand to compete.
It was completely unnecessary.
Why did you do that?
Well, there are two reasons.
First,
He dislikes them.
They dislike each other.
That's one reason.
The second reason is that he's smart under the fact that he was elected by only 35% of the vote.
And the communists have thrown this out there.
He's an already president.
The Germans, again, he said, are doing more than one semantics.
And...
Joe had a big majority.
He had 56 businessmen.
The men at Key divided the rest of it more deeply.
And I told him this.
I said, you have no problem.
You've got all the government apparatus.
These guys are all fixed already.
Problems chiefs, they're all his appointees, they're all military people, district chiefs, the whole business.
And I said, this...
There's no need for you to do this, and I can't give you assurances that if men drops out, the election is undetested, and the Congress is going to keep on supporting voting aid for you.
And, uh, I'll send you to see what they did with Greece, and, uh, and, uh, what?
He's, uh, he's gone this road now.
Yeah, well, men won't drop out of it.
That's very stupid.
Yes, that's the end of August.
Now, Hugh is convinced he'll stay the course.
This is why, I think, one reason that he's taken this, made this move, thinking he'd be safe with Ben in the race, but I'm sure he's going to stay.
And if he should go out for
Well, we don't care who goes.
If senators want to go, they go.
No, we're going to have one good group on their own, headed by a billion.
No, this is for freedom.
I don't know the next count that's going with it.
Oh, he's got credentials.
Yes, they're good.
So I think the...
He's very closer.
Go ahead.
He's honest.
Well, what do you do?
What do you do?
Yes, you think.
I think the general has done a lot at this time of the year, but it's been lower this year than I've ever known.
Well, last year at this time it was 78, and last week it was 14.
14 is 78.
This week it's 18.
18.
Oh, well, with us, because our troops are not carrying on any offensive operations.
It was all defensive.
The old combat started out by the Vietnamese, you know.
Yeah, but they're, they're, you know, taking a good break.
Oh, yes, you can take it.
Well, last week they were the lowest I've seen them for a long time, about 189, but they've been running about 225 to 300.
Yes, oh yes.
It's running very low, very low.
Can't make me out at 18.
No.
Now, what do you expect in the way of an offensive out there in your village road across the DMZ?
Are you expecting to give them a crash before the election?
Well, perhaps so, although I'm not sure.
I think the indications are that they're not going to do it.
That they try something, but they're rather, for me, intelligent to begin now.
They're rather going to turn their attention to political work.
Or just get to support...
I think so.
Well, actually, it could not be said that when you look at it, we've been there a long time.
We've been telling a lot of people.
Cambodia gave them a little punch.
Laos, even for the difficult ones, as well as we should have also tried.
But that's another reason, I think, I was going to say that the level of, actually, the punishment they took in Laos and Cambodia, and the punishment they've taken on their tradition.
Now, the...
I think it's got to work.
You see, for instance, for instance, for example,
of the input from North Vietnam into Laos and the trail.
Last year, about 37% of it got through.
This year, only 14% of it has been through.
But it was either consumed on the way or destroyed.
It's consumed in Lausanne, 719 in Laos, consumed in Cambodia, and it's...
It's way down.
Our invitation is much more effective.
I think that's a good matter.
That's a good matter.
They in fact got only about a third of the supplies through this.
Very good.
What are your objectives?
What are your objectives?
What are you going to do next with our horses down here?
Well, we're moving ahead with one.
We're strengthening the forces in I-4 and 2-4.
We're going to create another division.
What I think their deal is to split the first division and then add two each, half of it.
And we're giving him, as you know, a heavy tanker tagger up there, too.
And they're making arrangements for moving the reserves out if necessary.
And he'll need, I think, another division in two corps.
I think we can do that under the present ceiling of 1,100,000.
Now, can you, based on what I predict, can you ask this?
Do you think that, first, that likely a...
Do you think from a military standpoint he will be able to hold on through 72?
Yes, he can.
Yes, he does.
He thinks he can handle himself?
He thinks he can handle himself through 72.
What is the figure, if I may digress a little bit, of Ken Cooke?
The plan, if you still ask the plan that he described to me when I was there, was that as soon as the rainy season was over, I had to be back home.
Yes, but he says that he can strengthen the forces in I-Corps, II-Corps, and carry on in III-IV-Corps plus Cambodian operations.
But does he still have that 5-division operation?
I don't know whether he's still thinking of populations or not.
He's talking about a great thing.
Now, you feel that, what is the major danger in the next year?
Your judgment would be that in 72 is the year they took, with the American withdrawal, or something unique, some sort of Dave Wardu withdrawal, or any other attack to be accomplished, and that he still survives, that's your view at this point?
Yes, I think so.
Yes, I think so, and I talked to you on Saturday about this, and he said, ah, what was he still doing?
Well, now, he's over in the treatment, and it's now after next year, anyway.
Now, ah, and he said his first problem was to strengthen his muscles in my core,
It would be bad from the point of view of this situation.
We think it's going to blow out in 72.
If we could slow it down a little in the first part of the year, speed it up.
As you know, the Koreans have taken down about 10,000 Marines out there.
which I think we're very glad to see go, because Ben Cholson and the Russians and the Vietnamese are there, but the other two divisions have not stayed.
And in the end, he thinks they may also, 72, and therefore wants another division.
He thinks that he can handle that.
It's gone pretty well.
In the southern provinces of my call, there's been some regression, I think, in the security situation after we pulled out
But, if you're aware, I'm going up there to let go, and tell me if there are a few more regional forces, units up there in both provinces, maybe get them stripped down.
Well, we try and account that they won't do any controlling.
There will be a few regional forces if you let them down.
Yes, but this is funny, it's not true.
In the Delta, they're doing most of the fighting.
No, I mean, there's only two.
No, there's only two.
In the case of Kwong Nam and Kwong Nai, those two provinces, they're the ones who are having trouble.
You're, of course, the major in these activities.
Yes.
They're not very helpful.
I said, oh, yeah.
You did that, I think.
What do you think?
Well, I mean... Well, I think one thing... Have you ever agreed anything?
Well, I...
I said he tells me the Elizabethan transcript.
Yes, I know.
I think so.
You, Bruce.
Yes.
Yes, that's correct.
Yes, that's right.
He doesn't want it.
He doesn't want it.
He shouldn't have it.
Then he has to, you know, he's got to hold his damn people together.
He doesn't have it.
He doesn't have it.
I think that, in reading the transcripts of the last few meetings, it seems to me there's been a distinct change.
And I have swiped it through several things.
First, this is kind of eponymous.
They've had to get us kicked.
Oh, sure.
First place, they said nothing.
They didn't know what to say for about two weeks.
And they said, well, we'd better come to Washington.
We're going to run our own show, you know.
And they said it for about a week.
And that's, I think, one thing.
Secondly, I think that no matter how well disciplined they are, they've taken tremendous losses
They've fallen, they've fallen, they've lost us, and their economy is in a bad shape.
It's a terrible shape now.
And really, when you think of both Cambodia and Aung San Suu Kyi, they're counting each other, they're killing the hell out of them.
And they're fighting for Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.
And today, just today, they've got to be here again.
In Laos, for example, this year, one power, three books, almost all of them, managed out again.
Yeah, yeah.
I think this is a very distinct bearing on this.
I guess the key to it, from the way I analyze it, and I agree, is that it's cute.
If you give him two to his head, then they agree to something.
But can't they agree without getting two to his head?
And that's what it really gets down to.
I think the other hand is to give him two to his head.
Why would three to him?
They won't agree.
They don't have to agree to anything.
It doesn't go down to that.
So I think that's what they're teetering on down on the edge.
That's why he don't tell us back.
Yes, oh, absolutely.
Well, we'll get a few indications if he comes back at the end of this week to vanish.
Then there's a strong possibility that they have something.
He doesn't come back.
It's over.
Well, it's either over or they come back.
Well, I don't know.
Maybe we'll run over there.
It's ridiculous.
Well, if they make me come over there,
I think, unless we overestimate his Harvard neighbors, his Harvard neighbors have a damn good interest in getting this thing settled.
Ja.
Ja.
Ja.
Are we doing enough?
By the way, Henry, I want to be sure, are we leading enough stuff there?
By God, we've got to lead the stuff in Vietnam.
Let me tell you, we are going to have one hell of a time with this Congress.
A hell of a time in getting funds for Vietnam for military purposes after this is over.
Also, if we make some kind of arrangement here, we may have it all done.
What we want to do is to sock them off and fill their gut.
We're in the process now.
Don't let the damn services chase us out of there.
Just leave it there.
I approve of that.
Take water at a two-year stockage level and fill 15 of everything sent to ammunition.
These M48s have done a great morale to... Are they quite a tank?
Yes, they've got a small tank, and the off-evenings have bigger tanks than we have.
That's ridiculous.
What the hell's the matter with Abrams?
He didn't have...
He could have got them.
He didn't know they had a tank.
with great intelligence.
But anyway, getting back the tanks now, our tanks now, the tanks we're giving them will be as big as their tanks.
Or at least, you know, I think they'll have a fire department.
Yes, yes.
I remember in the early days of World War II, you know, our tanks were shot in all with the Germans.
Yeah.
But, you know, we had those stinking little tanks.
Yeah.
Ridiculous.
Yeah.
Oh, I think of that when they sent 48s.
On Iran, too.
Yeah.
And we would have one battalion evacuated this year.
Yeah.
I think it's a long road, but we have, oh my gosh, you know, you stop to think of all the criticism we take, not answering the seven points of the rest, I was just thinking, I read their damn faces will be, I don't even sell, but we put out the record.
Isn't that the record?
That's the record.
Because we had nine voters, and we reported, and they told us that nine
Well, anyway, we've come a long way.
We've come this far, and we're not going to cave in.
One of the things that really, the Chinese thing, it's like Henry knows, we didn't do it because we did not.
We did it a lot quicker, we just, because Vietnam could have made it one way or another, but one thing it has done, it has driven all Henry's friends, our critics, his former friends, they're now his friends again, so, right out of the wall, because they, you know, what can they make it up to?
Greg, tell what else is about how you're even welcome in New York, and how it pushes you over to the watering places.
I got a big stack of invitations to go to college in New York, sir.
It's for you and me, buddy.
It's for you and me, buddy.
It's for you and me, buddy.
It's for you and me, buddy.
It's for you and me, buddy.
But the 1960s completely behind the movie is not the 1960s.
Really?
Yeah, that's right.
Oh yeah, that's great.
That's nice.
He's just solidly behind.
Great!
He's a great power.
Power and strength.
Oh, he probably even proves it every moment he's here.
The district killed him before we delivered the article yesterday.
All right.
Isn't that something?
It's weird.
I've read that note.
He had an article saying that the only reason the president organized this Peking expedition was to have to avoid, to be able to avoid action in seven points of view.
Isn't that wrong?