Conversation 619-013

TapeTape 619StartTuesday, November 16, 1971 at 11:38 AMEndTuesday, November 16, 1971 at 12:05 PMTape start time01:41:04Tape end time02:08:01ParticipantsNixon, Richard M. (President);  Khan, Sudruddin Aga;  Kellogg, Francis L.;  Haig, Alexander M., Jr.;  Bull, Stephen B.Recording deviceOval Office

On November 16, 1971, President Richard M. Nixon, Sudruddin Aga Khan, Francis L. Kellogg, Alexander M. Haig, Jr., and Stephen B. Bull met in the Oval Office of the White House from 11:38 am to 12:05 pm. The Oval Office taping system captured this recording, which is known as Conversation 619-013 of the White House Tapes.

Conversation No. 619-13

Date: November 16, 1971
Time: 11:38 am - 12:05 pm
Location: Oval Office

The President met with Sadruddin Aga Khan, Francis L. Kellogg and Alexander M. Haig, Jr.;
Stephen B. Bull and members of the press were present at the beginning of the meeting.

     Introductions

     Gift for the President
           -Book

     Refugees

     Previous meeting
          -Geneva
               -1967
               -Roger Tubby

[Photograph session]

     Refugees
          -The President’s travels in 1956 and 1957
          -Political problems
                -India-Pakistan
                -Middle East
                      -Israel
          -Aga Khan's visits
                -India
                      -Indira Gandhi
                      -Officials
                -Pakistan
                      -Agha Muhommad Yahya Khan

     East Pakistan
          -Transfer of power
          -Problems
                -Credibility
                -Hatred
     -Mujibur Rahman
          -Trial
          -Lawyer, A. K. Brohi
                -Meeting with Aga Khan
          -Yahya Khan's statement, March 26, 1971
     -Yahya Khan's options
          -Rahman
          -India
          -Political problems
                -Conversations with Aga Khan
                -Zulfikar Ali Bhutto
                -Generals
     -Rahman
          -Petitioners
     -West Pakistan
          -Business community
     -Foreign exchange

India-Pakistan
      -Possible war
           -Generals
           -Gandhi
      -Compared to Arabs and Israel
      -Gandhi’s options
           -Yahya Khan
           -Bangladesh
           -United Nations [UN] role
           -Political pressures
                 -Bangladesh
      -Union of Soviet Socialist Republics [USSR] role
           -Soviet-Indian Friendship Treaty
      -Refugees
           -US aid
                 -Congressional continuing resolution
      -Gandhi
           -Previous conversation with the President
           -Yahya Khan
      -Possible war
           -USSR
           -People’s Republic of China [PRC]
                 -Pakistan
           -US response
                 -Aid
                       -Peru, Romania
                       -India
                       -Pakistan
      -US aid to India
           -Department of Energy [DOE] program
      -Possible war
                -US response
                      -Aid
                           -Congress
          -India
                -Possible action
                -Prospects for Bengal
          -Statesmen
                -Hawks
          -Gandhi and Yahya Khan
          -Aga Khan's visit to India
                -Elections
                -Rahman
                -Yahya Khan
                -Aga Khan's subsequent letter to Henry A. Kissinger
                      -Harvard University
          -Prospects for Bengal
                -Yahya Khan
                      -Rahman
                      -Gandhi
                           -Political pressures
                      -Army
                      -The President's possible advice
                           -Mujibur Rahman
                -Independence
                      -Guerilla war
                      -Gandhi
          -Refugee program
          -Possible war
          -Fault
                -Pakistan

**************************************************************************

[Previous National Security (B) withdrawal reviewed under MDR guidelines case number
LPRN-T-MDR-2014-009 and LPRN-T-MDR-2012-003. Segment declassified on 10/25/2015.
Archivist: JD]
[National Security]
[619-013-w001]
[Duration: 16s]

     India-Pakistan
           -Fault
                 -India
                       -Intelligence report
                             -Attacks on United States ships
                             -Guerillas

**************************************************************************

     India-Pakistan
           -Yahya Khan
                -US role
                -Relations with Generals
                      -Political pressures
                -Transfer of power
                      -Awami League
           -Mujibur Rahman
                -Assembly seat
                -Forthcoming trial
                      -Yahya Khan
           -UN role
                -Refugees
                      -Pakistan
                      -State Department
           -PRC
                -USSR

Aga Khan et al., left at 12:05 pm.

This transcript was generated automatically by AI and has not been reviewed for accuracy. Do not cite this transcript as authoritative. Consult the Finding Aid above for verified information.

Mr. President?
Mr. President, Mr.
Senator, Mr.
Senator, Mr.
Senator, Mr.
Senator, Mr.
Senator, Mr.
Senator, Mr.
Senator, Mr.
Senator,
So I call here the work of refugee operations in many countries in the world.
I had the privilege of having a brief conversation with you, Mr. President, a few years ago about the Republic.
About the Republic.
About the Republic.
About the Republic.
About the Republic.
Thank you.
We're gonna wrap it up here, hold on a minute.
.
.
.
.
.
in 1957, when I was traveling abroad, after I came out through my county, I was a pedigree priest, which is still a horrible lot.
And the advantages you saw as a big category is that inside
It's not the problem of Israel and its neighbors.
I mean, there will be refugees because the political problem may be inside of them.
I don't mean to tell you what the problem is.
I know that's what makes it difficult, looking for the money and all the rest.
And if you don't solve the political problem, they'll just multiply and multiply and multiply.
Well, of course, what we'd like to do is to avoid the kind of refugee situation like that which we faced in the Middle East.
And, of course, the number in the Middle East is ever so much smaller.
So if anything like that were to be faced in India, it would be just terrible.
I think it would be highly dangerous for the whole of our country.
therefore being an air-sport fan of the tour to begin with.
And also it disrupted the stage where the refugees had to be.
I visited last week again.
You were there?
Yes, I was there.
In India and Pakistan.
And I had non-calls with all the senior officials in both countries.
Of course, this country was in the area.
But I did see old people who...
I had long talks with the cabinet secretary, and then in Pakistan I had long talks with the president, who I know personally very well, who asked specifically to demand that you're interested, just because I had told you that I'd have a parliamentary meeting
And the situation is, of course, extremely complex, very complex.
Yair is trying to hand over power to the civilian authorities.
But the difficulty is that he's got nobody to hand power to in the East.
Well, in any case, anybody that comes forward to represent the Bengalis is automatically a march to stooge.
and repudiated by the Bengalis.
Right.
Well, it's even worse, in a way, because there's so much hatred of West Pakistan at this point that anybody who would go over to Islamabad to represent any Bengali constituency would have had to be among the sequestering.
So the problem is how to avoid a terrible break from being even further implemented by the handover of power too soon, until some kind of outcome of this trial itself, because the trial in which he was taking place
The man is being offended extremely terribly by this lawyer, Brody, who defended him before during the initial conspiracy case under you, which is about there was a case.
And I had a longer meeting with him in Karachi and again in Islamabad last week, and he told me that there was a case
That Mujib, in fact, cannot possibly be condemned on grounds of waiting for his lifestyle to be treated, despite the IAS statement on the 26th of March.
So he's caught in a kind of a web, because if he could use the outcome of the trial to clear Mujib in due course,
or even perhaps have him condemned and then exercise presidential power, he might be able to keep the country together by using Rajiv again, who I think would accept to be his new slave.
But can he go without his own hard-liners?
Maybe I think so.
But this idea would help to tighten the screw on that tradition.
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
really from a political standpoint.
Well, he's left out a couple of trying moves to sell.
First of all, there was a wash-ground interview, it was a week ago, where he said the definition of what's achieved to be released by the legislature.
And surprisingly enough, despite the fact that he told me in private, he spent many hours together in his home, that he had a sharp reaction from the generals, who said, what exactly did you mean by this?
But in fact, in the rest of the country, things were quiet.
Mr. Bhutto could have used this to try to retract.
He did not do it.
He did not do it, you see.
Now, of course, Yusri can't be bought readily in West Pakistan, but the generals live here, of course, and Yahya tried very hard to explain to some of the close members of his group, and particularly General Hamid, Tir Sattar, Omar and others,
that he didn't really mean what Walter Brown said, that he had been misquoted and so forth.
But on the whole, it was accepted.
And then, in addition to this, a number of people are now circulating petitions asking the president to free Moshi, including Ashraf Khan Qaboos, who has an important role in the army.
And the list of these petitioners is increasing.
So, basically, I think people are so fed up with the situation in the East
The business community in West Pakistan, which has also had an important role to play, is signing with the countries being drained and peaking now economically.
they have actually no export profits.
East Pakistan, the Jews, which is a foreign exchange, and generally, if there could be some kind of hope, I assume, people would probably know Tremor.
People would probably have weapons.
So the only problem really is the hawkish army generally.
who probably would prefer to have a war between them and lose face by having a stalemate with regard to those part of the national community, rather than to face a defeat by the band of enemies.
Because the Paternalists have always felt that the Israelis are basically inferior, and they don't want to be defeated by a military leader.
That's something that tells you that there's no other candidate.
Yes, sir.
I'm sure.
I mean, I want to talk to you about it.
Oh, I don't want to hear it, Frank.
Yeah, I think probably the people who are students deciding policy, they want a solution.
Of course, this is going to be a very strong discussion.
I just wondered what you read.
There are such violent experiences at both times.
You know, that's what we get right down to when we take the, even in this miserable problem, the Israeli-Arab problem itself.
Yes.
There is not a united front either.
So what one will say, you will do.
You can't say all of it.
I was wondering what you felt.
What could Mrs. Kahn get away with here, with your side?
I think if there was any side, that Yaya was having jokes with even secret jokes.
and that India could be convinced that this would ultimately lead to some kind of acceptability of the army lead, and an ultimate compromise, they would immediately defuse the situation at the border, control the extremists and accept the United Nations' presence on their side.
That is my suspicion.
But they would have to be convinced that there is some kind of dialogue with the machines.
they are not very apt to be in the United Nations process at this point.
No, because I think that this would be one thing that they are not also resentful of.
And so, as Gandhi has to steer this, I mean, of course, which I'm sure you must have assessed when she was here, between, on the one hand, the pressure of the Western employees with Bangladesh, and the extreme right-wing or left-wing elements in the group so far.
And at the same time, the interest of India in terms of the position of the Union of India and the international position of India also.
But this is to be recognized by Bangladesh as the whole supply control.
I think here the Soviet Union has been exercising considerable influence to avoid this step from being taken, which is why they provided this wonderful opportunity of sidetracking the issue by intervention on 15th of June with the Indian-Soviet Treaty.
Yes, that was clever.
Well, as you know, our position is pretty clear.
We are providing as much as the rest of the world can find in terms of refugees.
I'm glad that you mentioned it.
I wanted to thank you for this.
It's had an upbeat, pretty long, immediate, generous response.
I just didn't know what we could have done.
We, of course, are temporary.
problems and so forth.
They've finally gone completely back down the hill now.
They recently had a continuing resolution and everything.
So it's all done.
But we have to pay part of that.
There is a, there is, of course, this fundamental underlying thing that you addressed yourself to when you were on the rail.
If there's one thing, and this is not that I draw this out, there's been all these lines, and she was here, and I have conveyed the same impression to the guy.
No matter how bad it gets, in this instance, there could be nothing worse in that part of the world, or there are some times when such there is a choice which is worse than fighting.
and, for example, to avoid the domination or something like that.
But they're in that miserable part of the world with all of its agony and all of its poverty, and nobody who has stopped in there
You've never seen it until you've seen it there.
You cannot allow that to happen.
And the Russians, for that reason, I believe, will play a restraining influence.
They want to get dragged.
The Chinese know that if their hand is called, they've got to go out and help the Paks.
We, if our hand is called, the situation then, I can assure you, however, is going to be very difficult.
It's just cold turkey.
We are, this is a, this country I trust will always be generous in how we're looking on humanitarian things, and we do rather well, whether it's Peru or Romania or anything that makes a difference.
The philosophy of the government is so important in this human subject.
But, if there's a war there, the, you know,
regardless of provocation, if you just count us out, there will be none for anybody.
That means, and that isn't just refugee aid, that's NDSA, sort of obviously what little we still get to package there.
It's just gonna go because the, this present Senate in this country is such that to, you know, all because of our experience over the past few years, these, these don't get dragged into any war situations at all.
So,
Oh, God.
Well, to pray to you, we have, apart from the refugee program, a very substantial ongoing program of assistance through bilateral and all other agencies.
And we should have ideas of a country that has many people, that has many problems.
It's a poor country, and they're trying to make it look free.
But I can assure you that the day war begins there, all aid will be cut off.
The Congress will never allow it.
That's the situation we have here.
If the Russians, so, and of course we use, to the extent we have it in stroke, we use it with the Pakistanis too.
And yet, there are those, I'm sure, who take a suicidal attitude, don't they?
Because the hawks from both sides, they're just...
I can see that many of them say, I think it would be a gross mistake on their side to say, well, now's our time to knock over what Pack is saying.
But let's suppose, though, that they knocked over Pakistan, and then India had to digest East Bengal.
India has had a hell of a time digesting West Bengal.
It's a terrible problem.
And that's a terrible thing.
It would be worse if we had an independent Bengal down there.
Rather than one where they have a leadership of the Pax.
Now, the Indians, I know, would like to hear that because they think, well, you know, as you know, it's always so distressing.
It truly is.
But I've talked to these major, outstanding statesmen, and there are some great statesmen, both in the Pax family.
I don't look back to the truth.
You talk to them.
And they'll waste three-fourths of your time talking about Indian-African relations rather than .
I know.
It's all that.
But they're obsessed with it.
So they're obsessed with it.
And part of the reason they're obsessed with it is because of their tremendous pressure.
They're hawks on both sides.
And you get this guy you're on.
And he's on very reasonable people.
And I can't do that publicly, because they never let me.
They do that sometimes.
Sometimes.
I'm not saying, I'm not questioning.
In either case, a human person or not, one person, we've got to get a face.
We all know that many times in the military we say, well, it's what my parliament, what my generals would do.
My hands are tied.
You know, Mr President, when I was there in the area, in the beginning of March, before the 25th, I could see the handwriting on the wall, and that was dangerous.
Oh, yes.
Oh, yes.
One could see it coming.
After the results of the elections, it became very clear.
And since I knew, which he personally extremely well, and Bhutto very well, yes, I could see that also, if you hit this situation, I mean, the outcome of the elections, the personality of both men, yeah, yeah, I had a problem.
And at that particular time I had my concern with Mr Kissinger, whom I had known for some time.
Back when I moved back to Harvard.
At that particular moment I wrote him a letter in which I expressed my serious fear that the situation would be out of hand.
So, unfortunately, since that time things have become ever so much more complicated.
But I have to be convinced that if today Yahya is to be prevailed upon, to use the last Ka'an which she has in this game, which is Mujiwe,
And I'd be eager to ensure that Mujib would be willing to talk, because Mujib believes, first of all, that the early answer still lies not in an independent accord, as a completely independent unity, but as a kind of federation.
which would then allow Mrs. Gandhi to neutralize the extremist elements on the Indian side, either the refugee Bangladesh tribes in Calcutta, or the West Bengalis, or the forces in the parliament from the Jamestan or the other extremist parties.
And it would also defuse the situation considerably at the border, as long as the IAEA could keep the army under control.
and not get himself sidetracked by some of the generals around him who might, you know, take over.
I don't think they would.
I don't think they would if they could see clearly that there was no other way out.
And I think that stage has been reached in the sense that if what he does not use somehow, if some kind of arrangement can't be worked out, and certainly here Yaya needs the advice, the guidance of friends, like yourself, Mr President,
I see that in the short run, or in the long run, there will be an independent Bengal, which will be probably wrested away from the body of Pakistan for some prolonged protracted guerrilla warfare, which would create a terrible situation for the whole of Asia and the whole of the world.
The whole of Asia would become lopsided again.
And then Bengal probably would ultimately end up as a free, independent state, which would be extremely leftist, and which, as Gandhi said, could be managed to neutralize.
And then Pakistan and India would have to meet to discuss the problem in Bengal, which would be a headache to both of them.
So I think this is the ending of it.
Let me say that I will look to ensure, of course, our continued support of the two programs.
As far as, this is one of those few areas that I can't decide.
where war is not an acceptable alternative to anybody and cannot be.
And they admit this, we, of course, people in the United States and other countries too.
I think we have to keep balance and we have to realize that there is, of course, a great deal of fault
When we look at the West Pakistan side, India has all sorts of fault.
I was disturbed when I read a very classified intelligence report on how 60-grade jet-setter bombs blown out by Falkland had struck Benark.
aren't just gorillas that come out of the rice paddies or the jute factories.
They were trained.
And this is no way to play a conciliatory role.
But having said all these things, I think that we approach the problem very much the real problem is whether
Can't we all change that?
I see where I'm going to get you.
Do you want me to do it?
Can't you see there's one hope?
Yeah, I think there's one hope.
As long as people help him.
I think the U.S. can do it.
We don't need to get paid anymore.
No, but I mean help him to forge the right sort of political solution and help him to withstand the pressures of his force, who are not paid, I think, today.
It's very difficult.
He may, as an excuse, try again to say that if he was relieved, his own people would do it.
And after all, the suffering that has been inflicted on the eastern part of the country, he doesn't have a chance.
This is not true.
I'm quite convinced that this is not true.
The whole problem, I think, hinges on the way in which he's going to transfer power.
If he transfers power to people who have been planted to represent East Pakistan,
and continues this ban on the Anamaghi.
The people who have been cleared from the Anamaghi are not going to come forward as far as this goes.
This is clear.
Now one hope is that in the assembly he has kept Mujib's seat.
Mujib's seat is still there and came out the same.
Mujib's associate, closest associate, still has his seat.
They need the outcome of the trial, you see.
Because if they are cleared, then normally they should be able to take back their seats.
How long does the trial have to take?
Well, this is really up to Yahya, in the sense that he can relate.
It's a military trial.
Yes, it's in live court.
It's held in community council.
But I had many contacts with the man who was defending the chief, and I think the only hope lies in that kind of arrangement, to be whipped out between the head and the chief, because after all, he can have access to his time, and be used as an entity, if everybody wants.
On the refugee side, we continue to do everything we can.
And I hope that you know that.
And we try.
And I think the UN has a very important role to play.
And then you ask about the industrial humanitarian area.
And also the political areas, no doubt, but it requires more consultation between the U.N. and the State Department and other governments on how the U.N. can be used for environmental, sentimental science.
Thank you so much.
I think the Chinese would also want some kind of political, sentimental science.
I wish you the very best.
Thank you very much.
All you do is good.
You see other people do bad.
Thank you.