Conversation 647-007

TapeTape 647StartThursday, January 13, 1972 at 10:35 AMEndThursday, January 13, 1972 at 11:05 AMTape start time00:20:38Tape end time00:50:51ParticipantsNixon, Richard M. (President);  Laird, Melvin R.;  Haig, Alexander M., Jr.;  Ziegler, Ronald L.Recording deviceOval Office

On January 13, 1972, President Richard M. Nixon, Melvin R. Laird, Alexander M. Haig, Jr., and Ronald L. Ziegler met in the Oval Office of the White House from 10:35 am to 11:05 am. The Oval Office taping system captured this recording, which is known as Conversation 647-007 of the White House Tapes.

Conversation No. 647-7

Date: January 13, 1972
Time: 10:35 am - 11:05 am
Location: Oval Office

The President met with Melvin R. Laird and Alexander M. Haig, Jr.

     Greetings

     Vietnam announcement
          -Questions
          -News summary

     Vietnam
          -North Vietnamese attacks
               -Media coverage
               -Probability of success
               -South Vietnamese
                    -Prospects
                    -Army of the Republic of Vietnam [ARVN]
                          -Morale
                                -American Broadcasting Corporation [ABC]
                    -Possible questions at forthcoming news briefing

Possible questions at forthcoming news briefing
     -North and South Vietnamese capabilities
     -Gen. Creighton W. Abrams, Jr.
     -Reliance on South Vietnam for its security

The President's statement of US troop withdrawals
     -Date of withdrawals
     -Possible follow-up questions
          -Handling
                 -Noting circumstances
          -Prisoners of war [POWs]
                 -Remaining US forces
          -Administration record

Democratic candidates
    -Edmund S. Muskie, Hubert H. Humphrey
    -Previous positions on Vietnam
          -1968 campaign

Vietnam
     -US troop withdrawals
          -Levels

POWs
   -Deadline
         -North Vietnam’s response
                -Call for overthrow of South Vietnam government
   -Critics of the President's policy
         -Possible responses
                -Aid to North Vietnam
                -North Vietnam’s position
                      -US withdrawal
                      -Cessation of aid to South Vietnam
                      -Overthrow of South Vietnam government
                -Humanitarian aspect
                -Nguyen Van Thieu

Laird's possible responses
     -Projected enemy activity
           -Press coverage
     -Tone

     -Withdrawals
     -South Vietnamese defense capabilities
          -Chances of success
          -US combat role
          -North Vietnam

Press stories
      -Energy activity
            -Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam
            -Timing
      -South Vietnamese defense performance
            -US confidence
            -Defeats and victories
      -Cambodia
      -Laos

South Vietnamese
     -Military capabilities
           -Manpower, training, materiel, morale
     -Towns
           -Kontum
           -Laird’s possible answers
                -Phrasing
           -Composition
     -Central Highlands
           -Montagnards

Troop withdrawal announcement
     -Format
           -Ceilings
           -Press interest
           -Future announcement
                 -Timing
     -Laird's comments
     -Laird, Joint Chiefs of Staff [JCS], Thieu

Laird’s possible answers
     -South Vietnam defense capabilities
     -Nixon doctrine, Vietnamization, Cambodia
           -Press questions
     -Air and sea power

          -Possible future use
               -Conditions
                     -1972
                     -Laos, Cambodia
                     -US forces
                     -POWs
                     -1972 election
               -The President’s possible remarks

The President’s possible remarks
     -US troops
          -Confidence in Vietnamization, South Vietnam defense capability

Vietnam
     -Remaining US troops
         -Responsibilities

Possible action by the North Vietnamese
     -Psychology of attack
           -Evidence

US casualties in Vietnam
     -Helicopters
     -Press reports of increases
     -Compared to the Battle of the Somme, March 21 – April 6, 1918
           -British casualties
                 -Compared to Germans
     -Compared to New York City death statistics

Troop withdrawal announcement
     -Vietnamization
     -Attacks by the North Vietnamese
           -Prediction
           -Timing
           -Publicity
                 -Psychological effect
     -South Vietnamese defense capabilities
           -Possible failures
                 -Terrain
                       -II Corps
     -Air activity

                 -Effectiveness
                      -ABC reports

     Air strikes
           -Damage reports
                 -B’52s
                 -Four-day strike of December 1971
                      -Effectiveness
           -Effectiveness
                 -Weather
                 -Evidence
           -US responses to North Vietnamese attacks
                 -Remaining US troops

     South Vietnam
          -Success
          -Economic progress
               -Inflation
          -Progress

     Rate of withdrawal
          -US goals in South Vietnam
                -POWs
                -Self-defense

Ronald L. Ziegler entered at 11:00 am.

     Reporters at announcement release

     Questions for Laird
          -Duration

     Television cameras

     The White House Press Room

Ziegler left at 11:01 am.

     The President's statement

     Laird's comments

           -Vietnamization
                -Confidence in South Vietnam

     Troop announcement
          -Troop ceiling
               -Future announcement
          -Coordination with South Vietnam, Laird, JCS
          -Laird
               -Questions
               -Confidence in South Vietnam
               -US ground combat role

     [David] Kenneth Rush
          -Meeting with Laird
          -Hugh Scott
          -Proposed meeting with John C. Stennis, Margaret Chase Smith
          -Possible appointment as Deputy Secretary, Secretary of Defense

     Ambassador William J. Porter

The President, Laird and Haig left at 11:05 am.

This transcript was generated automatically by AI and has not been reviewed for accuracy. Do not cite this transcript as authoritative. Consult the Finding Aid above for verified information.

They voted for reading the news, not reading it.
The networks, the law issues, you see.
The party says they want to fill it up.
The person being taxed and all that sort of thing.
Which isn't too bad, as a matter of fact.
They do the fact that the far south would not be concerned there.
They're very likely not to succeed.
Well, they're going to take some hits, but they're going to... Yeah, they're going to do well.
They're going to do well.
I thought that... What I'm going to ask you is probably some of those questions.
Well, I think it's well to admit that the North Vietnamese will be able to carry on a few spectaculars, but that the South Vietnamese have a gift for the Vietnamese.
probably a security problem that's going to win every battle.
They're going to win the vast majority of the battles that they face over there, and they have the equipment.
The program has moved ahead well, and I've been given assurances by General Abrams that the program is such that we can arrive on the South Vietnamese borders very well.
Now, their follow-up would be .
I'm not speculating about that.
It's never been predicted.
We have said that we, and all the circumstances, probably evaluate the situation at that time.
Naturally, they, they, they have to follow up with you on that.
In fact, what are you going to do about it?
Do you have any suggestions of what's going to happen?
How would you handle that question?
How do you deal with that question?
I would just say that there will be a remaining presence of the United States forces there until the POW questions resolve.
They may want to put you on the spot in person.
We're down with my knowledge.
Where do you want to answer that?
Well, if you try to get me into numbers, I'll just say that.
I just don't make projections with Comcast about
Our record speaks for itself.
It's a good record.
Here's where we started and here's where we're going to be.
Yes, we're going to be almost half a million out by the first of May.
And I think I can probably get a couple of hunkers about some of the people that were... That's very strange to say, but we've got an escalator going up and up and up and down, straight down many places as we go down and down and down.
It's very interesting to know that the...
Some of those, and this includes those of us who come through here, said absolutely nothing when I first met them.
Our number of Vietnams had been constantly increasing, and who had no plans, whatever, in the 1968 campaign, very distinctly.
And now, some of the most vocal and criticizing, the most vocal and criticizing, I've tried to get the problem over almost half a million.
With this announcement, 87%.
87%.
And I think this is half a million, which is 24,000.
The prisoners for deadline, if they get into that, you obviously have an answer.
Well, that's a totally blue question.
I think if you would get harder to find the...
My gentlemen, that's a good reference.
The president pointed out in his statement to the South Asian Party that he's not going to be indicated as a candidate.
They're not interested in that.
Whatever.
They've said that they're going to go over prisoners to be overthrown.
The government itself, that's on the anonymous.
And there you go.
Well, I would say that anyone that tries to interpret the position any differently is either knowingly or unknowingly hating the law.
And not our position.
That's right.
They're not hating the law.
Now I'm coming down to the point, I'm trying to get...
I like it if it's all right with you.
Sure it is.
I like the humanitarian thing.
That's one thing that I'd like to talk about, the idea of stress.
Absolutely, excellent, excellent.
But if they raise the final field, I mean, say that that, that you thought is some of the most naive
kind of questions that you've ever heard.
What about offering a deadline in order to get to our prisons?
This is an offer that they've already turned down.
They turned it down last fall.
They turned it down just one week ago by saying that their demand is for the total stop of aid, and they overthrow the Jew government, and this is what you will not do.
See, they have put it on very, very hard.
That's an odd question, totally.
And frankly, it's one that does a disservice to the prisoners, the POWs, and so forth and so on, because it creates a condition that just doesn't exist.
I've had a couple other thoughts.
I think that one thing that's terrible is for you to cost your course of the country for the fact that there will be some increased enemy activity.
But don't allow your prophecy with regard to increasing enemy activity to be the lead out of this struggle.
What I'm getting at is this.
The factory would like to have that be the lead, because that's what they've been writing for the last four, three, four days.
And I can simply do it the low-key way, which, of course, you're a master at, and I can simply say, now, let's see where we are.
And here's a little twist that I thought.
This is a withdrawal, which is an increase, you know, gentlemen, not a big increase, but some increase over, as has been every withdrawal we've made over our previous withdrawal,
and as far as we're concerned, is an indication of our conviction and our, that the Vietnamese now have the capability of defending themselves.
You could say the American criminal combat role has stopped.
Then you should say, you could say that they, that now, having said that they are able to defend themselves, the South Vietnamese aren't ready to win the battles, all battles, any more than the Americans run all battles, when we carry the front of the fighting.
The South Vietnamese are able to defend South Vietnam, and the North Vietnamese, and they're ready to be able to defend their country, and North Vietnam has no chance at all to defeat them.
And this is an indication of our confidence.
Now, having said that, gentlemen, it is true that the enemy activity, I know the stories of some of you ladies and gentlemen writing about increased activities in California, Laos, Vietnam.
You know, curiously enough, those stories are written all the time at this time of year.
There's always increased activities.
In that period, this is the time when the enemy does increase.
The question is not whether the enemy increases its activity.
Some may be anticipated, some may be predicted for months.
The question is how solidly the enemy is performing when they, for the first time after eight long years, have a slow response level as far as defense and ground activity is concerned.
And this is an indication of our comments on that.
How does that sound to you?
I don't know.
I didn't get to that.
Okay.
And say the battle's won, the battle's lost, and that's good.
Just as we lost the battle, so we won the battle.
But here's the situation in regard to it.
You have any other ideas?
No, I don't have any other ideas.
No, I don't have any other ideas.
Okay.
I think it's important that the story come out here is on reductions and not on the... No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
Everybody would have bought it 15 times a day, and it still survives.
You believe we'll get it done.
As far as the office is concerned, this is always a hard time to hear your office.
It's very difficult.
But we do not have any ground people that they didn't know.
And as far as the oceans are concerned, we're hoping they'll be able to survive this.
As far as all of Vietnam is concerned, I would be absolutely confident, I said, that the South Vietnamese now have the men, the training, the material, and the morale to defend themselves against the South.
And, uh, again, I didn't even get off that little town of Kong to, uh, say, to tackle, uh, the, uh, the, uh,
There will be battles won, battles lost.
There will be towns lost, and towns won.
But in the end, it's all going to be about winning.
I just put it that way.
I think it's better if they don't use the names as much.
That's right.
I use that because I think it would make them too much out of that town.
Yeah.
Well, if you were to say, you know, there would be, you know, Heron is one of them.
Heron is one of them.
Heron is a little more obvious.
But I think it's always better
You're right, you're right, you're right.
So what you want to come out of here is the fact that I know that technically it's not correct to talk about anything except ceilings, and we should talk about ceilings, but the only thing that I'm interested in is the headline, so I'm going to say, I'm announcing today that we're all in addition to 70,000 for the next three months.
I'll make another announcement before I make a first.
I'm very glad to read you all the details.
So I don't think we'll have any problems.
It is important, though, to get this story based on the 70,000 withdrawals.
The only line that I might put in, I might add, which will be a good way to redraw to you would be this, I just say this withdrawal is...
which I've always said passes withdrawals through the Secretary of Defense of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and by President Hsu.
That's a big approval of President Hsu.
And it's an indication that we've drawn out a $6,000 of our, of our confidence in selling the atonement.
It's not about the ability of defending itself.
Some of them want me to say that, and then you, and that means the rest of them are, and they want me to say, well, what about all these battles?
Yes, because they always happen this time of year.
And say, I'm not trying to do this, you know, for the rest of it.
There are going to be battles that are going to be hard fighting.
But that biasing is going to be done, and for the next doctor, now he has met the optimization, biasing enemies.
Biasing enemies, by the way.
Now they call it the air power.
They may try to pressure the air, say, how long are we gonna have air power there?
What do you say when you have that question?
Well.
I wouldn't leave it out there about where we're going to be out of Vietnam, I'm going to say.
In this war, we've got America all going to end by 72.
I wouldn't foreclose the possibility that it might, because it might.
Well, I don't think we should ever foreclose the possibility of air and sea power in that area of the world.
I don't know if I'm talking about something else.
I'm talking about the fact that I'm going the other way.
I'm going the way of saying we don't want to get them in a position where they say that, ah, we're not going to end the American involvement in 572.
If you want to leave, leave hanging out there if possible.
Let me get to the point.
You know, Michael, we're always going to use it up there.
As far as operational
Operational conditions may change, but I can assure you that as long as there's any remaining American forces there, the air power will continue to be... Oh, that's the point I'm making.
Let's suppose we have a total withdrawal.
Let's suppose we get our deal done just about.
Now, Mr. Secretary, do you think we might continue to have air strikes?
Well, that's a rather nifty question, and I don't believe it deserves any purpose in answering that.
That's the way I handle it, but I'll handle it anyway.
I just have not, I've never wanted to come down and say, most positively, that we wouldn't decide.
You know that, but we can't.
But we're in a situation where we may have to, some of us may have to, three or four months before the election.
I think it'd be better for you to do that, though.
That's right.
You should take the better line, which you've done accurately.
But on that, I think it is better if you take the advice that you have to and that I don't take.
Do you want me to say, then, that this withdraws an indication of our, as the Secretary will elaborate his remarks, this withdraws an indication of our confidence in the success of the organization and the ability of the South Vietnamese to take over now the defense of their
Which is what it means, you know, 69,000 ship, 69,000 people out there can't even defend themselves, let alone defend themselves, you know.
And 69,000 people will have their hands full to getting the things that they have to get out of it.
Get out of it, you know.
You know, they're firebills.
Ha, ha, ha.
It's not very many people, though, Mr. President.
What is your view on this?
You know, I think this is exactly right.
I think there are two things to keep in mind.
One is the enemy is trying to build the psychology of a big attack.
Therefore, we shouldn't build that.
We shouldn't contribute to that.
But that also...
I think you might say that the idea is that, well, you might say this is sort of a unique culture from yesterday, that for the first time, and the first time since this war began, then instead of keeping it a packed secret, are doing the old thing, which may indicate that they want to have the psychology of an attack.
And that's the way these goddamn people are running.
They're trying to push the idea that Jesus is going to turn bad on them.
We aren't there.
That's the plan.
American casualty, what would the casualties turn out this week?
Five.
Jesus.
We lost four yesterday, but that's three.
But we have some sort of a... Well, we get it.
They've been shooting a few helicopters lately.
Yeah.
Well, for Christ's sake, you've got to expect it.
You can't... We'll have time.
We'll have a big story.
Headline.
American casualties sharply hindered should defy.
500% of cases over the last 20 years.
I mean, I can tell you what execution happened in Illinois.
The great battle of March 21st in World War I. Mr. Brady was supposed to have lost, but they lost their honor, which in the end turned out to be a loss for the Germans because the Germans didn't pray for them.
The British, of course, didn't have a hell of a lot of money for that kind of money.
They lost $400,000.
The Germans lost slightly less, even though they were on the attack.
So, war has changed.
Imagine if you were Secretary of Defense and you were making a casual list of the Germans.
100,000 a day.
All those who were not killed, about half were captured and dead, and the other half were
different word coming looking at this landing more people killed in new york city right now
Oh, well, that's been super.
We've got about, we've run it up to about 100 homicides a week.
Sure, sure, sure.
We always have many homes with drugs.
Anything else you think, what do you think the emphasis should be on?
You've heard us, I didn't talk to you.
No, I agree completely.
I guess we've got to get a little... We want to emphasize that this indicates the success of the imposition.
Third, we want to discount and advance this crap with regard to the fact that it's a hell of a defense.
It is a hell of a defense.
This offensive is ridiculous.
We've been predicting it for months.
Second, it always comes at this time of year.
Third, the fact that the enemy's got as much of us as they want, and therefore, we believe that as far as South Vietnam is concerned, it's going to fail.
There will be reports of battles, sea-sawing, there will be a sea-saw battle before them, because it's that kind of terrain, particularly their 2nd Corps, but at the end, the South Vietnamese have the men, the equipment, and the morale to defend themselves.
We're going to pour in goddamn air in this career, aren't we?
We are.
Oh, one of the things he had last night is that the air strikes did no good.
Now that's not true.
I wrote the reports.
No question about it.
We can't get a readout.
You know, they go out there, these guys are up there, and then we have to know how to get a readout of all the bomb damage.
We put about 2,000 tons of P-52 stuff in there.
We can't read it out.
We're not getting a readout.
I referred to our 4-day structure earlier.
Oh, the 4-day structure.
This has been good.
Well, the...
It did some good, sure.
We've got some pictures.
They aren't very good.
We've got a bad weather situation out there.
You know, that drone, that one drone we've got.
Well, you're saying, why don't you put it this way?
We've got a bad weather situation.
We don't have the photographic evidence.
But we have evidence from other surveys.
You know, a Frenchman came back saying that the death that it had, that it had accomplished, the mission that it had accomplished, it had been very, very effective.
It was very effective.
I put it this way, we haven't made that strike.
uh frankly you you would not have recommended the president to withdraw the press break when you say that i'm sure we can get into the i put that in that's right and they probably will ask me again if we're going to do it again and that's something that i just oh
Less than 100,000 men.
If they, uh, if they can carry all those men and they can keep them out of terrorism and the rest of it, we'll respond in time.
We'll respond according to what we believe is necessary.
Absolutely.
We'll put that right out there.
The thing about Mel, he never changed his mind.
You know, we've done so well here.
You know, there's the other side of the coin.
I'm I'm I'm I'm I'm I'm
The projects have been made there in a short period.
You can't bring them on any faster than we're bringing them on, Mr. President.
You just can't do it.
We started out with about a 10,000 rate, and we're up now to this rate.
It's 23,000.
But some will say, well, isn't that disappointing?
No.
They say, we're going to do what we should.
And no, incidentally, our part, we didn't go to Vietnam for the purpose of getting our prisoners back in Persia.
We didn't go to Vietnam for the purpose of withdrawing.
We go to Vietnam for the purpose of achieving an American objective, and that is the right of the ability of the South Vietnamese to defend themselves.
Anybody ready?
I'm going to call them in now.
Now, you've got it all.
Yes, sir.
As I said, he's done a lot of work.
I've had more than five minutes, sir.
Get the message out of his hair.
All right.
I'll just tell him.
I'll just answer the questions on this, too, or you tell him that.
I'll see.
I don't want to get into a lot of this stuff.
I'll see if you have any questions on the President's announcement.
Yeah, that's right.
The President, the Secretary of State President, you're going to have the public turned off, so we can take all that sort of answer.
Is that okay?
Is that okay?
We're doing a lot of information.
Now, let's see if my house up there will say hi.
no i think the way you uh
uh over the next three months this means that our group ceiling will be 69 000 by may 1st i don't have another announcement to take on that time this announcement has the appearance
It has the approval of the governor's office, the advance, the secretary of defense, and the county chiefs of staff.
Secretary, I have a major question.
Maybe I could do a poll like that and turn it to you, and then you get all the solutions.
I think that's a good idea.
I think it's a nice kind of color.
I think it's a good idea.
I think it's a good idea.
I think it's a good idea.
but remember that this, that you should get into the line.
This indicates our confidence in the South Asian nation, not just us.
Also, the line, the American ground combat, what we've said several times before, has ended.
It has.
I mean, we're getting shot at, but we can fight it.
Are we?
What the hell are we doing?
This is a piece of security.
Now, I don't know.
Yeah.
And he had to go around information to look at this.
I'm afraid this may be tough with all these contacts and things like that.
Please stop.
Just like I said, these are under consideration.
They just say there's not a lot of consideration.
He's one of the top officers.
Well, he was concerned about it yesterday.
Why don't you just say that he's not a consideration?
That there's several people.
He's one of those who's the top of the list.
Do you know what I mean?
So that he doesn't get it.
That's the second choice.
So yeah, he is my little friend, and I'm very much on his side.
The two people that I cut in this deputy spot in this security area, he's the best with.
We're Russian reporters.
I'm a reporter, too.
Since we're getting out of this goddamn Paris thing, why don't we get him back?
He's a great detective.
He's a great detective.
He's a great detective.
All right, go on.