Nixon, Ehrlichman & Shultz on Strategic Arms Limitation Talks and US Economy

2:49:45We'll get a white paper around it.
2:49:47It won't be attributable to the White House.
2:49:49I don't know how he did on that.
2:49:54I shouldn't say.
2:49:55Of course, he was with us on NASA.
2:50:00I don't know whether he went with us on the other side.
2:50:05All right.
2:50:09But the feeling he would stay in line, you know, for 30 days, he has done nothing.
2:50:12Yeah.
2:50:12He's really, he's really tried to be a very good soldier.
2:50:16I thought about it.
2:50:17I would love to be in the most vulnerable situation.
2:50:23Yeah, we must have talked about it.
2:50:26The President's been glad to know that it's all mine.
2:50:30And I'll, uh, I'll stick with him.
2:50:33I'll give him a chance.
2:50:34I'm so happy to have you.
2:50:38Yeah, I think it's sort of cool, the likes of Cooper.
2:50:53Cool.
2:50:53Cooper.
2:50:56Yeah.
2:51:10Well, Aiden, people who voted for Pansy will vote.
2:51:21Well, he voted.
2:51:22He answered very closely.
2:51:24On the other hand, 61, 13, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13, 12,
2:51:36Your strong support made possible is we've got to
2:52:06Old firm, you know, don't get up late, but we get through here.
2:52:10Sir, I called Jay Loveson and Wilson.
2:52:11He's got, he's got a candidate against me before the announcement, sir.
2:52:17Okay, very pleased.
2:52:17Thank you, sir.
2:52:48It's a great thrill to think that that much progress is being made.
2:53:00Well, you know how it is.
2:53:52Well, a systematic confirmation could be had of the importance of maintaining a posture of strength that you're going to get an evaluation of so that you can have something to give based on what you're getting.
2:54:14I don't understand this at all.
2:54:25I watched your answer on TV, and I apologize for this, but it happened that the station was turned to CBS as it came on.
2:54:48That's great.
2:54:49I thought you stole it.
2:54:53Dan Rouser.
2:54:54commented afterwards.
2:54:57He immediately picked up this point about the defensive and the offensive, the nature of the debate, and that this, in effect, meant that the negotiations were going forward on the basis that you wanted, rather than the basis they wanted.
2:55:16And that, he just bought the background around that.
2:55:20Calvin did not.
2:55:24He was very ineffective.
2:55:26He floundered around.
2:55:28Rather ask him a question he couldn't answer, so he answered another question that wasn't asked.
2:55:54Well, at least that's where it would start.
2:56:01I think there was a net plus in that, don't you think?
2:56:05Sort of a very strong feeling about that cognitive performance system.
2:56:12And that has come through on TV.
2:56:13It's come through in the hour and a half years.
2:56:16It doesn't matter.
2:56:17It doesn't matter to your experience.
2:56:24I think if out of all this railroad bargaining we can get what seems to be within range, then we get the whole thing tied up by the end of this year so that there won't be anything coming open next year.
2:56:39The next will be in 73 or so.
2:56:41One of the most small ingredients out of the collective bargaining scene.
2:56:48Actually, in 72, we have a big bargaining year this year, and we have long, short at the end of the year.
2:56:54The only really big negotiation is the G.E.
2:56:57Wessinghouse.
2:56:58What do we do?
2:57:00How did Peterson get along with the guys you saw the other day?
2:57:07But he told me that he thought it went along all right.
2:57:11And I haven't heard any feedback by her client about how they reacted to it at all.
2:57:19But your session with them was just...
2:57:24In fact, if I had been one of those fellows, I would have felt, gee, I really have got a tremendous number of ideas to work with.
2:57:33They were just coming out one after the other.
2:57:35I don't know whether they picked them up, but I suspect at least many of them did.
2:57:39One point that's been made that I have felt calmly about for the last four o'clock that I think is
2:57:53I think you really need to manage that.
2:58:21Now, my view is that the man that ought to be in charge of it is not because he knows anything about economics, but because of his discipline, his fans, which actually you and the rest of you all sit down and say, I don't know, out of mind, you're bothered about being able to do whatever you can say, whatever you can say.
2:58:41You can't control art, you're not part of the education.
2:58:44But I do think that this is the question.
2:58:50I think there have been incidents that have been troubled from the time the prime rate was raised.
2:59:05One or two things of that kind I think would be useful to have people checking.
2:59:16How would that be?
2:59:18How is it?
2:59:20How do we, do we have, do we have a format?
2:59:23We've got the domestic council, we've still got the tax committee, we've got the policy council, we have homework.
2:59:32Could it, would it not be possible for you to have, have a race?
2:59:37The only reason I suggested Kala as a man is that he's a tough son of a bitch.
2:59:41He's got this stature in the rest of the world.
2:59:45You know what I'm saying?
2:59:48Well, in our way, I'm going to do that, and that is to get that group together very rigorously.
2:59:54Well, we set the line.
2:59:55We get together now, every two weeks, we get together in Connolly's office, or his dining room, or Connolly, McCracken, or his replacement, Peterson, and myself.
3:00:13And then, I can make a statement about you.
3:00:19Well, from the standpoint of the volume of economic material coming up, labor, of course, but that crisis, and employment and unemployment,
3:00:46to make sure Congress puts that in place.
3:00:49Maybe you have to put two of them together.
3:00:56Add it to that group now.
3:00:57It makes an awful lot of sense.
3:00:59It was pretty big.
3:01:02How do you handle spans and march spans?
3:01:06I think you've identified a problem that we haven't dealt with all of.
3:01:09I don't think that Hudson's been any problem at all.
3:01:11The only question with me is what about spans?
3:01:15Sam, we need to work with Robert Flanagan.
3:01:17That does the best with him.
3:01:19All right.
3:01:19But we see that this is a...
3:01:21So, Flanagan is to be responsible for what you're saying.
3:01:25Is that how it is?
3:01:27I will talk to him.
3:01:29I don't expect... Oh, well, you're correct.
3:01:31I also don't... Again, I don't want to... Keep arguing.
3:01:46I think Tom can have as much influence with Arthur as anybody can.
3:01:51I've been working up, following your request, a little bit more formal agenda for the quadriad tomorrow.
3:01:59And one thing you could do is put a final item on it, namely this one.
3:02:03It would hurt Arthur to listen to that.
3:02:07I had from McCracken or so, depending on who's here, some review of the album,
3:02:13and then to ask Arthur directly for the second item about monetary policy and interest rates.
3:02:19Arthur, incidentally, made a very good statement, I think, on this general topic yesterday in his testimony.
3:02:27There are some parts of the testimony that I don't like, but the general theme on interest rates and so on, and his analysis of the international monetary business, which was a class, I thought.
3:02:38Well, he didn't put the blame all on the dollar.
3:02:42No, he didn't.
3:02:43He put it on speculative flows and the way in which the Germans handled their...
3:02:48Isn't, correct me if I'm wrong on this one, because I'm going to continue to take it, is it not proper to say that as far as the international monetary situation is concerned, the idea of having a conference
3:03:06right at a time when the crisis is wrong.
3:03:08And we should have a conference only after we have determined what we want to have come out of it.
3:03:12It should be well-planned and then go.
3:03:16Right?
3:03:16Do you agree with that?
3:03:17I certainly do.
3:03:18And I think we've got to be part of our mission not to devalue it.
3:03:21That was the one thing that worried me about that meeting in here where we all sat down here running into the stairs together and so forth.
3:03:27And I just wonder what's going on for you guys.
3:03:30And...
3:03:33I agree with that.
3:03:39We just had another...
3:03:46I came from a lunch at the French Embassy with De Stang there.
3:03:50He was there.
3:04:04The saying in the view is that the mark will continue to float probably until December.
3:04:12As distinct from what Arthur has wisely been telling us, he says they're never going to go back to the old parity.
3:04:17They're going to have to stabilize at some new rate, and once it becomes stable, they'll go on that parity, which is the saying in the view.
3:04:27Which is the saying?
3:04:29That it will float?
3:04:30That it will.
3:04:31The mark just will not float.
3:04:33until around December, certainly will still be floating next fall.
3:04:39And as distinct from what the Germans have been putting out, they've been saying, well, it's a temporary float, and sometime soon we'll go back to the old Paris.
3:04:50In other words, to freeze it at a level below where it is now floating to.
3:04:59And I think most people have felt that's just not possible.
3:05:04because they'll start all the movements of capital all over again if they try to do that.
3:05:10And I was interested to note that that's the same for you also, that they'll just have to swallow up what they've said and set their new market rate at a different level.
3:05:20The record that scared me, frankly, is that he changes so often, and he has.
3:05:31He has a great sort of feeling of wisdom and sort of gives you this considered judgment.
3:05:37Yeah.
3:05:37But it's different.
3:05:41He was more or less tackling hate at this meeting on the grounds of exercising fiscal restraint.
3:05:48Well, two months ago, he was the fellow.
3:05:51that was saying the economy needs stimulation.
3:05:55So he's now gone completely over on the other side.
3:06:03And there is a growing line of discussion, which I would say is something to find mover on the idea that fiscal policy should carry
3:06:16There's more and more of a load in this.
3:06:18And I think that's what they say.
3:06:20Let us recognize that the reality is impossible to explain.
3:06:24I don't believe I can believe we can stop all this stuff.
3:06:40You're going to have a hell of a time if this Congress is a spending Congress.
3:06:45And it's a political Congress.
3:06:47And it's a political Congress.
3:06:49And there are no comparisons.
3:06:50And a hell of a lot of Republicans aren't going to be voting any year before you have a better appointment.
3:07:01They're just not, a lot of these guys are like women.
3:07:04They're not sure.
3:07:05what the thing is going to be like in 72.
3:07:08And they don't want to risk everything for us.
3:07:11And so they're going to look after their own in the next.
3:07:14And so we can't count on them.
3:07:14That's right.
3:07:17They're going to go down there and vote to sustain people.
3:07:23Our estimate for the fiscal 71 deficit is now on the order of $21 billion.
3:07:29We believe the expenditures will be within the full employment revenue zone, right?
3:07:35although that's going to be close.
3:07:36The budget goes forward as proposed, and then we take into account what's happened, plus the Treasury's re-estimates of income, even holding the 1065 number.
3:07:48The fiscal 72 deficit gets up in the range of $18 billion, and it is well beyond the full employment revenues.
3:08:00That's my way of saying I don't think people
3:08:03have anywhere near an appreciation on how stimulative the fiscal policy is.
3:08:10And when you move that to a more expansionary posture well over a year ago, well, it really has moved.
3:08:21And it's time for people to be a little more cautious.
3:08:28My own judgment is, as we move through into mid-'72,
3:08:33that there isn't going to be any real question in anybody's mind about the fact the economy has been expanding and that it's expanding at a good pace.
3:08:43Our problem is going to be inflation.
3:08:48I just think that's going to turn around that way, and the position to be in is the position that you're in right now.
3:08:55You're the person who's been...
3:09:00being steady.
3:09:00I think they're the direct counterpart to the ABM.
3:09:03It's all tough business.
3:09:05You have a strategy.
3:09:08And you hang in there.
3:09:15Are you saying... No, sir.
3:09:17I'm saying the budget...
3:09:20The budget is...
3:09:23The budget is all right.
3:09:24It's a look on the expansive side.
3:09:26And I think we have to be very...
3:09:30careful about all of the additions that are coming about.
3:09:33There are a tremendous number of them and we're trying to keep track and add them up and bring you the bill here at one of these fundraisers.
3:09:41Because I think that there is a need for an exercise of discipline on the budget.
3:09:47I don't disagree with Arthur on that.
3:09:50My problem with Arthur is that two months ago he triggered off a lot of this stuff.
3:09:55He triggered off that Social Security tax change.
3:09:59Why?
3:10:00by the other kind of talk.
3:10:02Now he's come on to this other side, and I think we should just stick with the strategy we've got.
3:10:12We'll know our CPI figure.
3:10:13It'll be announced tomorrow.
3:10:14I don't have it, but as soon as I get it, which it probably will be when I go back upstairs, I'll let you know right away.
3:10:22Probably be bad news, but who knows?
3:10:24I just don't have a clue, other than that the food prices went up again at a pretty good rate.
3:10:29Yes, and I went up about a percent.
3:10:34That's about 15% of the index, however.
3:10:39I'll crack the ad and I'll have this.
3:10:43Your agenda would be that you... Well, I think you're right.
3:10:47It tends to be a bull session.
3:10:52Well, I think a review of economic developments by whoever is the council, then I think
3:11:00to put it to Arthur, right, directly, what he thinks about monetary policy and interest rates, and I can talk about that.
3:11:08I think it would be useful for everybody if you called on me to discuss the budget and what's happening to the budget as we see it, the budget problem.
3:11:19And from John Connolly on international, at the end, international monetary developments,
3:11:27And they're all going to Munich for this big bankers' meeting.
3:11:31And I should think it might be well for you to give them, not instructions in any kind of a formal way, but let it be understood that we should be postured, if you feel this way, that sort of the linchpin of our policy is the domestic economy comes first, and everybody might as well understand that.
3:11:58They go over to this meeting, and then maybe you could bring at the end of the question of all these voices speaking.
3:12:04Hey, Mr. Burns, let me ask you, what about this economic policy or something like that?
3:12:15Why do we have this equity problem?
3:12:19There are people who stand.
3:12:20I do see how you stand on that.
3:12:24I just never have any reason to see stands.
3:12:27I don't want to rob you there.
3:12:29I'm a bull in the hills and turned out a fool in a cave up there.
3:12:32See what I mean, John?
3:12:33But I'm just, some way or other, I'd like to get some kind of economic meeting.
3:12:42How do you feel, John?
3:12:43Do you see the problem?
3:12:44I do.
3:12:44Or are you just going to go out and bring sands in?
3:12:46I think that's better.
3:12:47We see sands a lot.
3:12:49I mean, it's a lot of White House actions.
3:12:53But I think his time with you, I really think that there's a danger in making him feel that he's a participant in these economic things.
3:13:04He's not really qualified.
3:13:06He's got some very serious biases.
3:13:09And I just wonder if you really want to include him.
3:13:14All right.
3:13:15Well, I see your point.
3:13:16Bring him in.
3:13:17He makes inputs to plant guns, so you get the benefit of those that are in the East End, I'm talking about.
3:13:23Arthur has softened his attitude on people meeting in the so-called quadriads other than the designated people.
3:13:34And we have brought, remember I talked with you when he first came here, we brought Peterson into the meetings with Connolly and McCracken and myself and Flanagan.
3:13:45And I think that Arthur is as unbending as he was at one time.
3:13:52So that's...
3:13:55I mentioned something to you the last time we met and didn't get a chance to make it clear.
3:14:01Having to do with balance of payment statistics.
3:14:05This is something that Stan has been about and talked to you about last fall, apparently.
3:14:12Senator Long has been trying to get us to change the method of computing the trade balance.
3:14:19And following the
3:14:21the discussions last fall.
3:14:24We have conducted a very extensive review of the trade statistics and the balance of payment statistics, and we have now ready to go as of June.
3:14:36Some rearrangements and some additional balances, so to speak, that help distinguish short-term movements from long-term movements and various things of that kind.
3:14:46I felt that there were
3:14:50The statistics are not solid enough, nor is the concept developed in a proper way to make the explicit changes that Stan and Senator Long want.
3:15:03And so we have resisted that, and it's somewhat of an issue.
3:15:10I testify tomorrow before that international committee, and I'm sure there'll be fireworks about it.
3:15:19There is one piece of correspondence that was leaked.
3:15:24It must have been from Commerce, in which Stan wrote me a letter about this, saying that he had discussed it with you, and you had instructed him to proceed.
3:15:35Oh.
3:15:36And so then he gets back from this big statistical task force, no, these statistics aren't quite right.
3:15:43So Long is making quite a thing out of the fact that that's probably what happened.
3:15:48What I've said is that what the President directed was an intensive review of the statistical aspects of this subject as well as all the other aspects.
3:16:12And that review has been conducted and here are the results in terms of a lot of changes
3:16:19and yet there are still problems with this particular thing that you wanted.
3:16:25See, what they wanted is to make an addition to the way you value imports so they become larger, and to take out of all the exports any element of government subsidy, so your A, your PL-480,
3:16:44presumably your exium subsidy and all that could be removed.
3:16:49So you make exports look a lot slower and imports look a lot bigger, and then you can make an even greater hullabaloo about the fact that we're losing out on international trade.
3:17:03So that's what's involved in this process.
3:17:06But I thought you should know that.
3:17:10Regarding that meeting the other day,
3:17:20I'm not a big advocate of subsidies.
3:17:25I think the market does a better job, I hope.
3:17:29But I would agree that Kearns has used this little subsidy, and it isn't very big, as a means to get people interested in talking about it.
3:17:41making an effort to export.
3:17:42And he's really quite a guy.
3:17:44He gets around and he gets people stirred up.
3:17:46So I think that's all for the good.
3:17:49It has turned out that he didn't need anywhere near the budget that he said he needed.
3:17:55In fact, he needed even less than we gave him.
3:17:57And there's been some turn back.
3:18:00And we had all that argument, if you remember, about the budget.
3:18:02And I think our people turned out to be right on that.
3:18:06He's going out of the budget probably pretty soon.
3:18:12No, I don't think it's that big a thing.
3:18:14I think it's something that ought to be around.
3:18:18Subsidies always get you in this kind of conflict problem that the fellow brought out with respect to Lufthansa.
3:18:26And any time when you subsidize something that might be in competition at some point with a domestic industry, you have a problem.
3:18:34In a sense, the Rolls-Royce Lockheed is an example of that.
3:18:38You get that all the time.
3:18:45The value of getting that purchase is tremendous in comparison with the time and subsidy in the office.
3:18:55I've got a few last minutes.
3:19:08I'm in the circus business.
3:19:09I guess we're out of SSG.
3:19:11We're out of it.
3:19:12Have you discussed the John Burns problem?
3:19:15That's one of, I think, the other Burns problem.
3:19:17No.
3:19:18The Social Security.
3:19:19I haven't.
3:19:19Why don't you go ahead?
3:19:22All right.
3:19:23A little list of odds and ends, and then maybe we can wind up with that.
3:19:29I had your friend Owings in yesterday and gave him a go-ahead to his elective tibling down the hall.
3:19:37And he's got some ideas to get back in 90 days with a presentation for you on what he will do there.
3:19:47We're going to Birmingham Tuesday for this regional background.
3:19:55We have a real fighting chance of making a coup on manpower and special revenue sharing in three weeks' time.
3:20:03And we need the southern congressmen desperately.
3:20:06So we would like to make a major pitch for .
3:20:13We're in the house right now.
3:20:15Perkins laid it over for three weeks in the house, all right?
3:20:20And he's gonna try and marshal a lot of opposition to it.
3:20:25So we would like to really spotlight that one special argument sharing that will undoubtedly get some questions coming and comment.
3:20:34What I'm leading to is a cast of characters who look like Romney on Urban Special Earthly Sharing, Hudson on Manpower Special Earthly Sharing, and somebody from the CDA, and I guess it'll have to be Herb Stein in comedy.
3:20:52There isn't anybody else really available except Hunt Hector.
3:20:56Hello, everybody else speaking German?
3:20:58Stein is better than Hunt Hector.
3:20:59Yeah, yeah.
3:21:01So...
3:21:03Uh, we will, we will precede you in there when you're up doing the, the dam.
3:21:07Why don't we put on our sort of funny show for the press that will consist of the four of us.
3:21:14And then you'll come in and tag it at the end with your
3:21:19But what you'll say, basically, is the fact that we're getting movement.
3:21:28And we have one area that has enormous potential at the moment.
3:21:34We need support.
3:21:36And what we need to determine, basically, is support.
3:21:43So that's Birmingham.
3:21:45I just finished talking to Reagan's man upstairs, and I think we're making some progress.
3:22:01That training will support our legal assistance for legal services bill, number one.
3:22:08Number two, that they are waiting.
3:22:11They will say nothing about HR1 until we have had a chance to thoroughly brief them.
3:22:17that he's holding a silent position now.
3:22:19His lieutenant governor said something yesterday, he got off the reservation, and he tells me that they have lit on him now.
3:22:28So we have a fighting chance of getting right on the border on each other.
3:22:33So that's for the good.
3:22:35We still want each other.
3:22:38We got a new song.
3:22:39I don't know what else.
3:22:41Oh, I think we got it.
3:22:47on balance, the one on the blue line.
3:22:54You had a former partner, I guess, or he was a member of Adams, Duque, and Hazeltine by the name of Living.
3:23:01He has won four candidates for two vacancies in the federal district bench.
3:23:08He is not as well qualified in the ADA sense as a fellow named Barnes.
3:23:16But if you would like him to go to Linnick, it is possible to do.
3:23:20Oh, he's a winner of Atlanta.
3:23:22I just want to call the church.
3:23:27I don't care.
3:23:29One guy's qualified.
3:23:33I don't know whether Linnick is a good supporter or not.
3:23:36Well, they're all politically clear.
3:23:38They're politically clear.
3:23:39Earl will know whether he really is.
3:23:41All right.
3:23:41He'll know whether he's up to it.
3:23:44Earl is so honest that he
3:23:46to tell you the truth.
3:23:47Okay.
3:23:48You probably know the other guy.
3:23:50We have the straddle of the age on the court of military appeals.
3:23:55I saw that.
3:23:55I'm going to get Watson.
3:23:56Albert Watson, one, and Black, the other.
3:23:59We had two vacancies on Albert and Will.
3:24:02Did you find the Black?
3:24:03Yeah.
3:24:05Do we have the two vacancies yet?
3:24:06Well, no.
3:24:07We're going to have to put Watson in the first one.
3:24:10We've got another one.
3:24:12What?
3:24:17Yes, it's in the air in the future.
3:24:24Police are told that blacks are going to get one, right?
3:24:29I want to be sure that they know that they're not.
3:24:33Second agency can be created by convincing Judge Quinn to retire.
3:24:38This can be encouraged by promoting Judge Dargan to Quinn's position as chief judge.
3:24:44So Malik is working a car line here.
3:24:46He says it will take him about two months to accomplish.
3:24:53I'm sure the blacks know what he has.
3:24:55We're looking for a man.
3:24:55Yeah, I talked to Ed Brook.
3:24:57He said we've got to find another.
3:24:58We've got another one coming in two months.
3:25:02We're getting a certain amount of retirements.
3:25:08my assistant secretaries and undersecretaries right now.
3:25:11And it's a question of time.
3:25:13Most of these fellows will come in and say, well, it's not going to get back.
3:25:19I need to go now, or I can go here.
3:25:20And the question is, do we want them to go sooner or later in terms of the election?
3:25:28And I suppose it's an individual proposition.
3:25:29Now, Van Dusen over at HCD would go any time he wanted to over 30 the next year.
3:25:37But he does have to get back.
3:25:40And I suppose if you don't want to have an ex-conservative, that sort of thing, I don't think there's a lot of difference in whether you run the departments or not.
3:25:54Well, now if I can recruit people or if we can move people up, then we can.
3:25:59So I don't think that's too much of a problem.
3:26:02If you have a harder and harder recruiting job, the closer you get to it.
3:26:05I think you do.
3:26:06Unless you take somebody out that you've got, an existing guy, and give it a job.
3:26:10Either in the department or in the White House.
3:26:12You get toward the notion that there's only a year and a half or so left, money-wise, too.
3:26:17I understand that.
3:26:19Some of it's also just time for them to step up and make their return while they're on top.
3:26:32She's had a talk with Ruger, this SST guy today, and he's been offered a $110,000 a year job out in the aerospace industry with the lobby and crazy deals coming down the line.
3:26:46We'll monitor the lobbies.
3:26:48We'll monitor the lobbies.
3:26:51That's about all I have.
3:26:52I wish nobody was doing that.
3:26:54Are we going to loan our cars?
3:26:58In the close-in parts, you know, I haven't checked that way with the East-West.
3:27:04East-West is, of course, the East is all set now, and it's moving through.
3:27:09We're having problems with the Armed Services Committee.
3:27:11I'm shaking some of this military down loose.
3:27:14A-Bear is giving us an unmitigated hard time on Camp Pendleton.
3:27:21And his 30 days are up, but he's asking for an extension.
3:27:25And he's going to probably offer legislation to keep us from turning that over to the state.
3:27:30That's it.
3:27:30No, you see, we had to submit it to the Armed Services Committee, which is, what the hell does it cost to make it?
3:27:38Is it got a debt warning card coming around?
3:27:40Sure.
3:27:43I suspect Laird is, too.
3:27:46Well, I think it comes right from the top.
3:27:50If I may be entitled to appeal, Laird is exterior defense.
3:27:56Arnie Weber went down and talked to him the other day, and they had a discussion of the pros and the cons and whatnot.
3:28:03And then Arnie got ready to go, he told me.
3:28:07And as he was leaving, Hebert said, Mr. Weber, just one more thing.
3:28:09Weber said, what's that, Mr. Chairman?
3:28:12He said, don't do it, Mr. Weber.
3:28:14It's threatening.
3:28:17Well, the other thing he said, you know, we had our eyes on a piece of land in Louisiana.
3:28:24And he poked his finger at Weber, and he said, young man, you stay out of my district.
3:28:29So I don't know what we can do about it.
3:28:36Well, you've got to come along.
3:28:38You've got to get to California.
3:28:39No, we're not.
3:28:40We'll come along.
3:28:41We've got to get to California, and everybody's got to understand that.
3:28:44My God, they've already moved in.
3:28:50Well, they will go to release.
3:28:53They did, they did.
3:28:55just so we don't give it away absolutely, and so they're compromised when they come back.
3:29:01It's probably the police.
3:29:03Yeah.
3:29:03It wouldn't bother me too much.
3:29:05Well, I'd rather have them.
3:29:06I think we'll hang tough for a while, and we're turning on a little pressure from California to see if we can get some people on set about it.
3:29:16I know Burns is, the next time you, the reason why it's important for you to know, particularly is that the next time you see Burns, he'll tackle you on it.
3:29:25It has to do with H.R.
3:29:271.
3:29:28The Republicans, with John Burns as the... Oh, on Social Security?
3:29:36On social security.
3:29:40Well, the biggest problem is that we didn't... there was a foul up and somebody tried to see him and he wasn't there and he called back and so on and there was no communication.
3:29:51And so he is feeling very, very aggrieved, and I guess the other Republicans aren't.
3:29:58And it's understated.
3:29:59But I thought if we go along, we only went along after the fact in our statement, in which we said, well, this 5% is just for the old folks, in effect.
3:30:18And...
3:30:20So then firms naturally felt these were the way to ask us if they ought to put us on transit.
3:30:25I don't know who the hell can talk to him.
3:30:27I don't know if Mel Ayrton can.
3:30:30Can you ask him to?
3:30:32Sure.
3:30:32I asked him.
3:30:33I don't know if I can talk to him anyway this way.
3:30:36I said, I'm General Revenue Sheriff.
3:30:38I thought it was time for Mel to say to him, look, we can't wait around forever for John Burns to get aboard.
3:30:47And if he doesn't get a board, and if we get any kind of motion out of the chairman, we're going to have to leave John Burns behind.
3:30:56That's what we do better.
3:30:56Well, the chairman at this point has definitely crossed the bridge that something's going to have to be done about cities particularly and also states.
3:31:09And I think he pretty well buys the approach that we've outlined, but I'm not sure about that.
3:31:16He is moderating a little bit his revenue-sharing speeches by inserting things about, well, he's against this and this principle and so on.
3:31:28However, something is going to get done.
3:31:32He's making a speech tonight in the North Carolina legislature.
3:31:39And I'm sort of anxious to see what he says and whether or not he abuses the discussions that we've had
3:31:46I wasn't there.
3:31:47I saw one California Democrat took a slight mask by saying he was not here for false pretenses.
3:31:57Because all we did was try and sell our legislative program to him.
3:32:04I don't know why he was caught.
3:32:08I can't imagine.
3:32:11And everybody who attended that from around here said it was a superlative job on the campus.
3:32:16That they really did a great job.
3:32:18Well, they're done with it.
3:32:19They're very good at it.
3:32:20You know, Rocky and all the rest of them are just damn good.
3:32:26I gave him a lunch in the State Department.
3:32:31What the hell, that's worth a trip.
3:32:34The other class has sent word that he will be in touch with me tomorrow.
3:32:37Whenever you're ready, we'll talk.
3:32:41Johnny Burns, I think, I think this, I think you ought to have talked to John with Mel Larson on how you would take him out and talk about it.
3:32:57He is the man that looks this through.
3:33:00He's got to tell Johnny Burns on that.
3:33:02I did that this morning after the Kevin game.
3:33:04I said, we cannot extend time to Johnny Burns anymore than
3:33:11A malice for a record share, absolutely.
3:33:12And he has talked concerns about it in the past.
3:33:15And he said, I'm going to see him again this weekend.
3:33:18And I said, well, tell him that this is the last weekend.
3:33:21There's nobody to talk about this.
3:33:23And that he's either got to get a board or we're going to be free agents to go our way.
3:33:26And he thought, well, that would be the only guy.
3:33:30He said, well, if you could just give him some kind of a tax credit giving in there, he could do it.
3:33:35There's a tender going to be filed.
3:33:37Can you do it?
3:33:39Well, I think Burns was, if we could have brought off Mills at that breakfast time that we talked about a week or so ago, Burns would have been dragged in.
3:33:52Well, he's missed, and that'll hurt us, but we'll still go back.
3:33:58And I don't give up on Burns.
3:33:59It's on the Social Security thing.
3:34:03Just, Greg, you've got to go back.
3:34:06He's already frustrated.
3:34:09We've all apologized and everything.
3:34:13I must say, I fell for it myself.
3:34:17He asked me about it.
3:34:19I said, gee, this is going to let those poor Republicans stood up.
3:34:23They stood up against the old folks.
3:34:25We came up for the old folks.
3:34:27That's what we're using.
3:34:28But even then, had the clearance thing gone as it was supposed to go with those fellows, I think it would have solved it.
3:34:36Because we delayed that statement because we didn't put it out.
3:34:41And there was time for clearance.
3:34:45Right now, he's blaming OMB.
3:34:48That's just as good a place to leave it as any.
3:34:51We're having to sneak something over.
3:34:56You know, 21.
3:35:00That is, if we hold it, that'll be within full-blown revenues.
3:35:05It's 21.
3:35:06Is that because of the fallout revenues?
3:35:09That is mainly because the revenues aren't as high as the Treasury previously estimated them to be.
3:35:18Well, this is their best reading now that they've had their April 15th returns.
3:35:26And the thing that I don't know the answer to is the extent to which that re-estimate affects
3:35:35a proper estimate of the full employment revenues.
3:35:38That is, the revenues that actually came from the tax system at a given level of GNP were less than they thought.
3:35:47But we'll be sure that the estimate stays above our expenditures for 71.
3:35:51That's why, and it's darn high, if we have that, and with CAP, we've discussed this, and we're trying to load as much into 71 as we can
3:36:05on the grounds that that deficit is gone.
3:36:08Absolutely.
3:36:09That's why I let all these withheld funds as much as possible go down, rather than throw over the 72.
3:36:19Well, there's a different issue there, and that really goes in the other direction.
3:36:24The sooner you let the funds, the sooner the big buildup of the expenditures comes, and that's the fiscal 73 problem, which is just going to be wicked.
3:36:36It's a possible problem, I think.
3:36:39We can work out a way to keep it in the full employment revenues of the current tax system, but it's going to take a lot of thought before you'd want to buy that, I'm sure, in the 73 budget.
3:36:51We'll be ready toward the end of June to talk to you about that.
3:36:55Unless we change the tax system, the raised taxes.
3:36:58Well, the health and grace model...
3:37:03The question is who do you raise them on?
3:37:08The question is whose taxes get raised?
3:37:21This is part of the thing that in the middle of June we have to talk out in political terms is also whether we can do something in the property tax.
3:37:28Well, that works for us.
3:37:30It does involve raising taxes.
3:37:31I know that.
3:37:31So you raise taxes to get property tax.
3:37:35It's not as high as it's pulled around.
3:37:38Yes.
3:37:40I don't know.
3:37:41I think on any side of that, let's do a lot of things.
3:37:43Well, we're doing it, and hopefully we'll be able to spread the RDS.
3:37:47I've asked the Secretary to be ready by the middle of June.
3:37:53And I think he and Mitchell and some others have got to look at this from a political standpoint, give us their opinions as to the political viability of it before you come to grips with it.
3:38:07We talked about
3:38:09which was, I believe, the 18th or 19th of June.
3:38:13That may be about one week too soon for us in terms of getting all of our information together.
3:38:20So I'll give that note to Bob Holman and discuss that all with David.
3:38:28Does he have a cameo post?
3:38:29An interview?
3:38:34Something.
3:38:34One way or the other.
3:38:38We have a very hot controversy going on right now with child care.
3:38:51There's something called the Bradyless Dellenbach Bill, which is a very grandiose federal program of child care centers.
3:39:01ATW says we can't just be against child care centers.
3:39:04We've got to have some kind of a child care program.
3:39:07So they've cooked up kind of a revenue-sharing approach, where it's done by the states and so forth, but with federal leadership.
3:39:16Here comes Kevin Phillips out in favor of the Raiders-Downback thing, and says the OMB is leaving President Donald Trimbrow's past and not letting him get into this very sexy political issue.
3:39:31And I read that thing, and it just didn't make any sense.
3:39:34Kevin Phillips in favor of a new social program.
3:39:38So I had a meeting on it this morning when I had the guys from the Department of OMB and everybody in, and I said, what can I do for Kevin Phillips?
3:39:45And he said, well, his wife works for the committee.
3:39:51And...
3:39:53Did he ever go?
3:39:54I didn't know he had a wife.
3:39:55Yes, he had a wife, and she's a, she's a, makes a hell of a difference.
3:39:59She was the only one I told what child care was like.
3:40:01Tom, can I just mention one thing on the black car list?
3:40:06Yes, I'm going to give you a good one.
3:40:11I see the Kissinger between, before he enters, 4 o'clock, 3 o'clock, he wants to see me in that box.
3:40:16I've got a 4 o'clock meeting.
3:40:17I know the guy who's left.
3:40:19Yeah.
3:40:21I think that a whole pretty good staff job has done all right, and there are all kinds of ins and outs and difficulties.
3:40:29If you had a chance to call up, I know you call up people, the two people who really come to the audience.
3:40:38John is the same person, and I've heard of that tremendous amount of members.
3:40:43I could tell a lot of them, and I just signed it, period.
3:40:47What's the other one?
3:40:48Yeah, the other one.
3:40:49A-L-G-E-R.
3:40:51Well, the interesting thing about it, I believe, just as a matter of fact, that when you look at the things that have actually happened in the last two and a half years, employment, education, and housing, it is a stunning record.
3:41:19Just stunning.
3:41:21There's no doubt about it.
3:41:24One of the points that we were tackled on as a briefing was, well, what did you do, what did you give the Black Caucus as a result of their suggestions?
3:41:37And the answer was, well, nothing in particular.
3:41:40Their suggestions were taken out of the review, but the impressive thing is the President going about it and his
3:41:51by his own license, for his own purposes, has put down here a record that is present.
3:41:58That isn't in response to anybody's demands.
3:42:00It's just in response to his own efforts.
3:42:06The Hesburgh Civil Rights Commission has set up for June 14th hearings on suburban integration housing.
3:42:17And they've subpoenaed a whole lot of assistant secretaries.
3:42:21Chris Lee from other places as well.
3:42:25Jackson, Simmons, and so forth.
3:42:29So that's our effective deadline for getting the challenging statement out.
3:42:32And then this civil rights commissioner is going to appear.
3:42:38And we're getting together tomorrow.
3:42:45We'll have something for you within a week, I would think, before I have a statement.
3:42:53Yeah, actually, next week.
3:42:57The easy ones don't get to the line.
3:43:01Sorry.
3:43:01Incidentally, I'm your doctor, but I thought this was going to be a psychiatrist that we fired or tried to fire.
3:43:13No, it's actually for an appointment.
3:43:16Is that why you want to keep him?
3:43:18Because he's his personal friend and a superb individual and a great human being.
3:43:23Yeah.
3:43:25And has Elliot persisted in his deployment requests since?
3:43:29Two hours ago.
3:43:30Since Dean and Krogh got to him with the record?
3:43:34What is the record?
3:43:35This is two hours ago.
3:43:37And I wonder if they've gotten to a...
3:43:38I told him that Dean Crowe made them and everybody over here go with any go.
3:43:43They were going to go... What is the record?
3:43:46Malcolm's going to move back to meet with him.
3:43:50Oh, what is the record?
3:43:50They have a long list of incidents.
3:43:54He's been one of the real roadblocks in the archives.
3:44:01Well, here's something.
3:44:03John Dean Crowe feels very strongly about it.
3:44:06Arnold Webber, our friend, Elliot, was over this morning.
3:44:12I hate to put it in words on him, but he's got some giraffe's nest over there.
3:44:17God damn it, we just cannot have a ball that's giving me the encouragement to still drive.
3:44:23It feels so strong.
3:44:24There are other problems.
3:44:25I just happen to be square on that.
3:44:28It's one of the few left, I guess.
3:44:30They were all the actors.
3:44:33Yeah, that's it.
3:44:34Before this thing, they were ready in case.
3:44:40Well, thank you very much.
3:44:43Don't you love being square on drugs?
3:44:45I must say, that is one thing.
3:44:48The more you see it, I talked to you before, and it seemed to me that you people were very beforehand.
3:44:55I had to talk with them again.
3:44:57I didn't have a link letter here.
3:45:06Oh, yeah, fine.
3:45:07Yeah, yeah.
3:45:09I'll talk to the secretary.
3:45:11I was going to ask you, did you talk to Rumsfeld?
3:45:19Is he going to think about it?
3:45:20Is he going to do it?
3:45:24Is he going to think about it?
3:45:26Oh, Christ.
3:45:30Stop and say yes, you know.
3:45:31I think my cat does a fantastic job.
3:45:36He doesn't know anything about it.
3:45:38That's great.
3:45:39You don't need to.
3:45:42He's that type.
3:45:44Do you know anything about OU?
3:45:49He doesn't know anything about NSC either, does he?
3:45:54That was my account.
3:45:56I gave McCurry a strong conviction.
3:45:59Well, I wouldn't have gone any further.
3:46:01I've told him to stand or nothing.
3:46:04I'm glad you did that.
3:46:06I thought that was damn good.
3:46:07And I said, he said, what, what, President Stargain came and we were interrupted.
3:46:11He had something else in mind.
3:46:12I said, he doesn't have anything else in mind, Don.
3:46:14I said, he, he hasn't gone through this thing.
3:46:17He had originally planned to, he had decided to make a change with Lincoln because he wanted a political man in there and he wanted somebody who would take full advantage of that office.
3:46:24Mr. President, I can kiss you.
3:46:25You said you would like to see me before four.
3:46:27Would you like me to hold up for a couple of minutes?
3:46:34Any time.
3:46:35As soon as it's convenient because he's in and out of meetings.
3:46:38Tell him he can come now.
3:46:40I have to leave soon.
3:46:44I have an appointment for him.
3:46:48I thought I might drop him.
3:46:49What I said is that one thing the president does to me, I said he didn't have anything else in mind.
3:46:55As a matter of fact, he's not doing that.
3:46:58He's ignoring it.
3:47:11Mr. Lee, I wanted to tell Mr. Webber when he came back that all I called to was to tell him what a fine job he did on that Black Caucus statement.
3:47:22I knew that was an enormous amount of work, and I bet you did a lot of the work yourself.
3:47:27So I just told him that I called to thank him for it.
3:47:30And a member of his staff will do that.
3:47:32Well, yeah, it was a tough one.
3:47:34It was a great job.
3:47:35Thank you.
3:47:42I walked over to C-Con for a change.
3:47:48Sure, sure.
3:47:50Good.
3:47:50And, uh, I, uh, I'm still in the business.
3:48:02Right.
3:48:02I guess it's hard.
3:48:04It's hard.
3:48:04It's hard.
3:48:05It's hard.
3:48:05It's hard.
3:48:06It's hard.
3:48:08It's hard.
3:48:09It's hard.
3:48:10The President will call them personally.
3:48:15It is in use for the USSR.
3:48:17I want to ask you, just checking to see how it has gone on the internet, who do you agree with?
3:48:30It's getting better with every transverse.
3:48:32You take a look on the column and just say,
3:48:40Tell him, just don't tell him I'm coming.
3:48:46Just say the president's tied up right now, but he has somebody who would like to come over to see you and will be over at 4 o'clock.
3:48:55Do you say that?
3:48:58Yeah.
3:48:59It's a very important visitor.
3:49:01Why don't you say Cindy Henry over to see her?
3:49:04Yeah.
3:49:05No.
3:49:06Just say that I have a very important, very, I don't want to talk about it, but I have a very important visitor that I'd like to have come see him at 4 o'clock at his office.
3:49:17Okay.
3:49:17The president's tied up right now that you're just calling him because of this thing.
3:49:22I have a very important visitor.
3:49:24Okay.
3:49:24You want to check with Rood over there first?
3:49:27I don't think there's any problem.
3:49:30who will be in his office at 4 o'clock.
3:49:32Okay, okay.
3:49:34You've seen the headlines, this big break in house talks.
3:49:38Tell me how you went with Chancellor.
3:49:41Oh, Chancellor Severide Morgan.
3:49:43Severide, how was he?
3:49:44Terrific.
3:49:45And Morgan?
3:49:47Excellent.
3:49:48He understood it.
3:49:48Oh, he would understand it.
3:49:50Well, they all understood it.
3:49:51That's a good group.
3:49:53Marvin Kalb.
3:49:55Marvin Kalb, of all these guys, understood it best, strangely enough.
3:49:59They told me that he was the one, when CBS was interviewed, rather was good, and Kalb sort of was... Well, I'm not saying that...
3:50:12I won't bet on what he'll say, but he'll certainly be good at...
3:50:18It's very, very important if you care.
3:50:21Do you have a simple funeral?
3:50:23Every one of them.
3:50:25Yeah.
3:50:26Oh, yeah.
3:50:26It works out well because I said all the technical questions to him.
3:50:29Good.
3:50:29Good.
3:50:33That's good.
3:50:33In all my three moments, I'm calling people.
3:50:35Great.
3:50:35Tell me who you call.
3:50:37Well, I've called...
3:50:38I've called McGeorge Monday.
3:50:40You know, I'm a little tired because I had a funny thing last night.
3:50:44Okay.
3:50:50I think the statement that we finally got was a little better.
3:50:56Oh, much better.
3:50:57I don't mean that's no reduction.
3:50:59Oh, no, it is better.
3:51:00It is better.
3:51:01What did George Washington say?
3:51:05Practically had an orgasm.
3:51:08Yeah, he said he's going to use his influence with the Senate for a minute.
3:51:14So the president's going to have to hold up on his appointment at 4 o'clock, and we'll give you a call as soon as he's free.
3:51:20In the meantime, he has a guest over here he wants to send over to see you.
3:51:25And so if you could be there at 4, he'll send him on over, and then we'll call as soon as the president's free, and you can come on over.
3:51:32He said, who is it?
3:51:35And I said, he wouldn't tell me.
3:51:39Okay.
3:51:40Okay.
3:51:40Good.
3:51:40Well, that's it.
3:51:41I think that's it.
3:51:41Come on.
3:51:43He's going to help establish relationships between us and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
3:51:51That's what I told him.
3:51:53Senator Hughes made a statement saying a historic moment.
3:52:05I made a statement.
3:52:06Aiken, I think, said something friendly.
3:52:09But the Democrats are all right.
3:52:13You know what a box he's in?
3:52:15Did you?
3:52:16Colson, with his Machiavellian, vicious, dirty mind.
3:52:21Thank God.
3:52:21I've got one guy around here who thinks like I do.
3:52:25But anyway, he got in.
3:52:26Had to be in a suit when he was on the show.
3:52:30You know what Colson did?
3:52:30He dug out Humphrey's speech.
3:52:32He read it.
3:52:34He's going to circulate it as a white paper, you know, in a column.
3:52:40The President's policy of holding
3:52:42The only way to get arms talks is for us to have a moratorium on him and a moratorium on her, and that way we will get talks.
3:53:01He just walked out on that.
3:53:05Oh, God, the hell is Trapper for?
3:53:09That was the best move I've ever made.
3:53:11Muskie hasn't done a thing right since late 2016.
3:53:13You told me if I hadn't seen the text, the actual company.
3:53:21I called Atchison, too, but he wouldn't.
3:53:29Clyman of the New York Times.
3:53:31I called him this year.
3:53:32He says, congratulate, congratulate the president of Hillary Clinton.
3:53:38They really do do that.
3:53:39Oh, yeah.
3:53:41They know, but you always talk for a hell of a long time.
3:53:45Oh, yeah.
3:53:46We've covered that.
3:53:46My name, I'm off to the office.
3:53:50Yeah.
3:53:52Oh, Rose, bring us a poppy of gas.
3:53:54Yes.
3:53:56I don't know what I told you.
3:53:57Dobrynin called when he sent this press release over and he said if any senators give you trouble on our announcement, give me their names and I'll call them too.
3:54:07It's on there, isn't it?
3:54:15Isn't it something where you can put up an address with it?
3:54:18I sent this to those who attended the, this is a nice little thing, to all those that, I use this in a little talk, I made it a rules committee and they all want to be there.
3:54:28and a copy of the talk, which of course I didn't have.
3:54:34But I used this quote, and I think it's really quite good.
3:54:38It's an historian, and I was in a few United States senators in the last couple of years, and it was a really, I think it was the first class historian, was Beverage.
3:54:48He was like a margin, and he was completely black and white.
3:54:54Bowers, Beverage, of course, was the one that read that.
3:55:00Partisanship should only be a method of patriotism.
3:55:30He who is a partisan merely for the sake of spoils is a buccaneer.
3:55:34He who is a partisan merely for the sake of a party name is a ghost of the past among living events.
3:55:41He who is merely the partisan of an ordinary organization is only a pebble in the sand of a boss.
3:55:48But he who is the partisan of principle is a prince of citizenship.
3:55:54I gave it to you this morning.
3:55:56I think, Mr. President, I think it might be a good idea to have Bill Rogers tomorrow when you're sending out the coming troops.

Nixon, Ehrlichman & Shultz on Strategic Arms Limitation Talks and US Economy

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Nixon Library Finding Aid

Also recorded on May 20, 1971

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