Nixon, Shultz & Stein on Economic Policy and Export Controls

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We started work on the export controls to see how that can be managed legally.

We'll have a report for you on that.

The, uh,

It's a very impressive group.

Very impressive group.

They're the best top-level labor management group ever assembled.

It's a great pleasure to talk to a Canadian.

It's interesting to me, and I think, not altogether, it's significant that they are a Canadian.

I mean, George, I mean, he doesn't show up.

He's not feeling well.

He's got to be very careful.

He's a Canadian.

There are only two that have got Walruses in Moscow.

And Abel in Nevada, you know, he was opening for an important steel worker meeting there that he felt he couldn't get back out of.

But he called in and he gave his views both to me and to my head.

I can predict what they were going to say.

Well, he has this feeling that you've got to do something.

Then he'll catch attention.

Let me tell you what I had in mind after listening to some of it.

I know that her is very concerned about it.

The czar over here is concerned.

But the czar has a whole lot more strength than the president.

I mean, he's a goody to be protecting.

But my point is that what you have here, at the beautiful moment, you have Paul Hall and Fitz representing the gut reaction of an awful lot of people.

What we have to do, and what I'm trying to get at here, is to catch their attention with the briefings.

Then, however, to explicitly keep the second part as close to base briefings we can, except for two things.

Now, I, uh, I mean, the second thing is, now, uh,

But we need to catch their attention so that people will know.

We need to catch the attention of the country.

We need to catch the attention of the Congress.

And we can't do it just going out and saying we're going to continue doing what we're doing.

And I don't think going out and saying we're going to control the amount of soybeans that goes to Japan and so forth and so on.

We'll do it.

I wish that were the case, but that's my gut reaction.

I think the, uh, uh... Well, we're not going to have a freezing crisis that's not wages for a short time.

We didn't.

They will.

I noticed that we were very good at it, too.

You noticed we didn't.

They will feel that they made an impact.

If that's the way it's done.

Yeah, maybe.

Maybe.

Maybe those guys.

Uh...

I mean, I really feel that we use a bunch of budgetary problems.

That isn't the budgetary problem.

If we try to own it, the only way you can do it is, in terms of the government rate, is to essentially subsidize what's above that.

But the consumer interest rate, I believe, is a problem that can't be handled.

Wouldn't you say that?

Well, I would say there's no oppression on it.

So, yeah, I think there's no oppression on it.

I'll think about the 30 to 60 days thing.

I'll get a little more thought to that.

So I know you're concerned about it.

I haven't figured this out.

any kind of reason to get what we can out of it.

As I said, get the time the Congress should be able to act and the time we can act.

If you can sort of brainstorm a whole thing, how it looks after, you know what I mean?

How it moves.

from this to basically a strength and phase 3.

That's really what we're talking about.

That's what I'm talking about at least.

And let me just say one thing or two on that story we were talking about earlier.

Because I am determined to get out of this stuff.

I am determined.

If the economic predictions prove to be anywhere near, not anywhere near, something between that, you know, when it comes to four or something like that, then we're just going to let her go.

That's all there is to it.

And we can take the heat next year.

Right now, it's just, we're in a real tough spot on the heat situation.

Okay.

I mean, let's see what we can do.

Yes, think about it.

I talk about it very, very often.

I feel that the export controls, as I said, I would prefer them to be as sound and strong as possible.

I don't have to defer to your gentleman.

In other words, it has to be credible.

And do you feel, John, do you feel the expert controls thing is important?

Well, I'm absolutely certain about the preoccupation aspect of it.

Licensing.

Licensing and its application will depend on what the view, the outlook for the next prime year.

I think if you want to make a credible commitment to holding food prices, retail food prices somewhere near the present level for another year, you have to do this.

If you're willing to absorb some risk, some rise of those prices, you don't have to.

But we can't absorb it.

Try to leave it.

We've got to have the foreign policy still.

And I say don't just, as the first paper indicated, say PL4E is done.

We can't do that.

Let me say, on a case-by-case basis, we can.

And I must say on the

I have the impression, at least from the discussion I've had with a few of the NFC people, that the PL-480 levels can be cut down considerably in some areas.

Scott come in at sanity when we were discussing the PL-480 levels.

We all know this is a supply problem.

It's $800 billion worth last year.

Yes, sir.

And at some crop, some sweet, it's figured that something like a third of the price rise could be attributed to the 4A sales.

In the sense that if they hadn't been there, the prices wouldn't have risen as much as they did, although they would have still risen very substantially.

Well, we will see you at 3 o'clock.

Well, that's fine.

I know a lot of them.

I'd like to go in Wednesday rather than tomorrow.

It gives us another day to be sure that the mistake we made is not too great.

That's all right.

But just remember, we all believe in the same thing.

That's how we get there.

That's what I'm talking about, at least.

If you could sort of brainstorm a whole thing.

how it looks after, you know, I mean, I, uh, how it moves from, from this to basically a, a, a strengthened phase 3, that's really what we're talking about.

And that's what I'm talking about at least.

And, uh, let me just say one thing or two on that story.

We were talking about, uh, the second four collections and so on.

Don't you worry about that.

Because I am trying to get out of this stuff.

I am determined.

If the economic predictions prove to be anywhere near, not anywhere near, something between that and a little bit of it comes to prove to be anywhere or something like that, here, not anywhere near.

We're just going to let her go.

And we can take the heat next year.

Right.

But now it just becomes weird.

We're in a four or something like that.

Real tough spot.

That heat situation.

I mean, we're going to do what we can.

Yes, think about it.

We're just going to let her go.

The export controls...

I mean, we'll have to see what we can do.

The export controls, I said I would prefer them to be as sound and strong as possible.

sound as strong as possible.

I don't have to defer to your judgment.

In other words, it hasn't been credible.

And you feel, John, do you feel that I don't have to defer to your judgment?

In other words, the expert controls.

It hasn't been credible.

It's just a part of it.

Well, I'm absolutely certain about the pre-notifications and aspects of it.

Yeah.

The question of how to send my policy is,

Do you feel the licensing, do you feel the export application will depend on what the view, the outlook for the next ?

I think if you want to make a commitment to hold on, I'm absolutely certain that the retail food prices are somewhere near the present level for another unit.

You have to be an aspect of it.

I don't think it will depend on what...

Try to leave it.

I've got to have it.

We've got to have it.

I think if you want to expect a foreign policy still, I say don't...

Incredible commitment to hauling food from a retail group.

As the first paper indicated, it's APL for a reason.

Somewhere here in the present level.

It's not needed.

I can't do that.

I don't do this.

Let me say, on a case-by-case basis, it's over.

And I must say, on the request coming from India and Pakistan, it's a risk to rise above preference and don't have to do it.

But we can't absorb the message.

Then I don't think there's any alternative to the export control.

Try to believe it.

I've got to have it.

We've got to have the export policy still.

And I say don't just, as the first paper indicated, say PL4E is done.

We can't do that.

Let me say, on a case-by-case basis, we can.

And I must say, on the request coming from me in Pakistan,

I have the impression, based on the discussion I've had with the UNFC people, the PL-480 levels can be cut down considerably in some areas.

The discussion I've had with the UNFC people is that the PL-480 levels can be cut down considerably

Yes sir.

It's $800 billion worth last year.

Yes, sir.

Some crops, some wheat.

It's figure last time.

Something like a third of the price rise can be attributed to the 4A sales.

Something like the sense that they hadn't been like a third of the price rise can be attributed to the 4A sales.

The sense that the prices wouldn't have risen as much as they did, although they would have still risen very substantial.

Well, we will see it as much as they did, although they would have still risen very substantial.

Thank you.

Just remember, we all believe in the same thing.

That's how we get there.

Nixon, Shultz & Stein on Economic Policy and Export Controls

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Nixon Library Finding Aid

Also recorded on June 11, 1973

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