Nixon phone call with Rumsfeld on Public opinion polling and George Gallup

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Hello.

Yeah.

I was on the phone with John Mitchell on a matter which I'm sure you understand.

Sure.

Say, I want to just report, sir, about my visit with George Gallup.

oh yeah you went to school with him i did and i i kind of want to be awful careful about telling people around this building that i'm talking to him because he all he's got in his business is his integrity that's right well he's one of the as distinguished from uh some of the others well well we talked to harris you know colson but basically gallup has generally been considered to be without reproach and uh although there was a question in 19

60 as to whether in the last weeks he got a little close to Kennedy.

But the main point about Gallup, Gallup through the years, I think, has retained the most reliable pollster, but that's what people think.

Oh, they're not always right.

No, that's true.

At least they've not ever gotten in bed.

But we don't figure that they're, the main thing that people figure is they're not being bought.

That's right.

by a candidate that's what it gets down to which is why i wanted to tell you personally when i talk to them rather than understand that's the way it should be i don't we don't pass anything around around here in any event when are they coming out well they're coming out they think on sunday i see and uh they were in the fields october 8th to 11th which was after your no before economic speech

But before the Soviet announcement was on the 12th.

Yes, sir.

So it's right in between those two.

Well, the Soviet announcement probably had very little impact.

Well, it had some, but very little, I think.

And last night, he had 800 samples in, which is about two-thirds of the total.

And it had not been fully weighted, but he said...

He used the word, there's been a dramatic jump-up.

I said, well, what do you mean dramatic?

And he said, well, Don, we haven't waited it, and it's only two-thirds, although he says it rarely changes much after the first two-thirds.

And it normally just simply confirms the first two-thirds.

And I said, well, how's it been running?

It depends how they wait it, you see.

That's right.

It depends how much he waits the youth vote, particularly.

Mm-hmm.

So he said you've been running 48, 51, 49 last time on approval, disapproval.

And he said this time, he said you can be sure it's going to be up several points.

In other words, more than the error tolerance of two or three, of one or two or three.

That would be very helpful.

Oh, yes, sir.

You see, as you probably noted, Harris had a good one on Monday.

Yes, they did.

And he's going to have some trial heats that are better.

better than gallops great but i understand that at least and as you know he also has gone ahead and asked that question about a black for vice president oh yeah which he'll have out sometime harrisville gallop will sometime the end of this month good so that's so he'll get his figure he think uh by by by when do you think you'll get it

But he does say that he used the term that it has gone up.

He didn't.

He said he would just be absolutely dumbfounded if the thing were not up several points.

Well, basically, just so it's up some.

Sure.

I'm just talking to Bob Haldeman and Colson here a few minutes ago.

We have really a problem with that goddamn stock market.

But I said, let the thing slide around.

That isn't what really bothers us.

I mean, what...

They say, what about phase two, and we're uncertain about it.

Phase two's got to be uncertain.

It can't work without uncertainty, as you know.

You hit it right in the head with the leaders this morning.

I've been doing that with the press every day.

Isn't that true, though?

Certainly.

If you want certainty, we can give them certainty.

Sure, you can have an edict, a dictatorial edict.

You can have certainty with a huge bureaucracy, or you can have uncertainty with a chance to regain your freedom, and damn it, we just got to hit that.

sure i quite agree and uh also i think what the market is afraid of uh of course in these dams aren't the businessmen a pusillanimous bunch what they're afraid of is that there's going to be a jump up in some of the weight settlements after the freeze well there is isn't there i'm convinced they'll have to sure how can you do it and keep well but on the other hand john there isn't any i mean don there isn't any question in my view the thing you've got to implement is that look

We've got Meany and we've got the top five labor barons of the United States on the line, assuming responsibility for mitigating

Now, that's going to make a difference.

So maybe it isn't going to be at 3%.

Of course it isn't.

Maybe it isn't going to be at 5%.

Of course it isn't.

But it isn't going to be 20%.

Now, that's a hell of a difference, right?

Sure is.

And we ought to take credit for it.

Right.

I think sometime before these people start making tough decisions on the board and commission.

We better get them in.

Get them in to meet you sometime next week.

Well, we haven't got them all appointed yet, have we?

Well, we've got one or two left.

We're shooting for a Thursday announcement and a Friday get them in for their...

I threw another name in today, and I don't know whether he really probably wouldn't like to, but another name that would help his business, but he would be very useful, could be Bob Ellsworth.

Ellsworth is very intelligent in this field.

He's now with a New York investment banking firm.

You're quite right.

And he's very close to Scranton.

He and Scranton are very close friends.

And I met, whether Bob would do it, I don't know, but, and that's why I'm, his firm probably won't let him, but the name just occurred to me because I had seen him yesterday on another matter.

That's a good idea.

But put him down in the back of your mind as to a possibility, but, but, but,

But you need strong men.

I'm glad Scranton's going on because he's a decent fellow.

He is a decent man.

Decent, and he'll work like hell.

Sure.

And Rocco Siciliano will do a good job.

Oh, Christ, yes.

And Weber on the other side.

Yes.

Okay.

Thank you, sir.

Bye.

Nixon phone call with Rumsfeld on Public opinion polling and George Gallup

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Nixon Library Finding Aid

Also recorded on October 19, 1971

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