Nixon, Shultz & Haldeman on Economic Policy and Dollar Convertibility

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Well, studying the situation... All right.

Well, the...

The basic information has to do with the conversion of dollars into other currencies and the scale of which that's taking place and how that compares day after day.

Today's movement was a billion and twenty-one billion.

of which 991 are concentrated in seven countries, the bulk of which is Switzerland.

Yesterday's was 464.

So they're running totals, August recent totals, beginning August 2nd through August 12th.

August 2nd, 7-1-28 August 3rd, 6-3-3 August 4th, 3-7-3 August 5th, 6-3-19 August 9th, 7-3-6 August 10th, 7-4-9-4 August 12th

Yeah.

American speculation.

It isn't.

We have a pool of dollars outside the country that people are trying to pass around.

But also, there is a large outflow of vaccines.

That seems to be an expectation of a big movement tomorrow.

Let's get down to it.

exactly why people think that's so.

Yeah, I mean, we hit it on Catholic Weekend, I just don't, plus there might be others, plus the buildup of the Weekend.

And in fact, the buildup of the Weekend argument is an argument that our idea of doing whatever we do on Friday doesn't make as much sense as one of those things because

because people build up in the weekends.

And so there's no market has fixed it so that one day it's about to be developed.

The whole proposition has been thought about so much that, for example, discounts.

Part of the corporate persons, I said, as well.

And they, uh, we had a billion supposed cars to go away.

We don't have to come back to that.

It's not, uh, we are another lease.

And, and, and now our reserve

and also have the

Since the question of, if you were ready to catch that, and to deal with it through internal meds, by saying, right here, et cetera, and I don't do anything about dogs, if this builds up, probably the less people you are to stand up for that kind of meds.

Yeah.

Watch out.

The poker says that DJ has arrived.

He's done that for 10 days.

But he may be right.

Well, he's done that a year ago.

Yeah.

But he may be right.

Now, Paul McCracken called me.

I'm not sure what he called me.

He came in about an hour ago.

Yeah.

He said, is anybody watching?

I said, yes.

And he said, I said, why is Brad doing a lot of this?

There are several other things that are under way.

I have had a few things that are under way.

I wonder if God made the law of it, and God's assumption that unless there's something, a lot of evil things are really not going to happen.

In fact, I wanted to say another thought that I just checked out, which I thought was a lot of great.

It occurred to me after the week we had this morning about TechNav,

where we've made this national security club special.

And I'm going to hear you discuss it with me from yesterday.

Very good news.

I said, well, that's not much of a question here.

It's not as to a particular period of time.

We say that here is a period of time that has some characteristics of, you know, well there.

And we hope that cause, and that we have a free hand to do

That's what you want across the board during that period of time as you stick around the textiles, get the steel, get the wood, and so on.

Perhaps, you know, some of those things also have something to do with that.

You know, if this gap just doesn't work out, it just has to be...

Maybe, uh, maybe you could use an optional security.

What it would do is if you have an opinion that the circumstances

uh, trigger in, uh, in battalion circumstances, triggering authority.

And then given that, you'd apply that authority to some range of commodities that are shipped in, either in the form of a tariff or a quota, depending on what you want to do.

One of the problems we're worried about, we talked about here yesterday, was going through the textiles, and everybody, everybody, you know, this would tend to get around.

This seems to me, by the time, once it's declared the emergency, it's off and everything's gone.

Of course, that makes it hard to undeclare.

Once people get arrested at that time, there's a claim that there's an evaluation.

Seems to be here.

With regard to the plan of a person, I do not believe that it would be that we should panic into doing a very important task.

We're not really ready on that.

The only way you can get ready, of course, I can call everybody up.

I can call everybody up at Camp David on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and get a program ready.

Therefore, assuming that the crisis is such that action is required now,

The option that I threw out, I think, is down the drain because the moving on the domestic aspects of it requires more thought and more preparation and more background and everything else that we are able to give at this point.

I believe that September the 7th is the right day, and we've got to get to the Congress to do the whole domestic package, including the export.

Now, that leaves us then with having to do, assuming the preciousness of this magnitude,

the way i would do it would be to have connell just and the crater just put out a simple straight i think the idea

You see, most people charge like poker and all these drugs and these policies and all the other things that go on.

There's a hell of a crisis that's going to do this.

I mean, it's going to make it a lot worse.

matter of fact as possible, might even be the comments that was put out in the statement.

Because of the international speculation against the dollar, we were taking the action which is temporary.

I would say temporary action for the purposes of

to discuss the situation with the nature of the nations.

That's the way I would do that now.

And then I would say, I would say that if we go forward with the plan,

Right.

I just feel that we cannot at this point promote domestic packaging in the right way in a matter of three days.

We also have a bad time.

... ... ... ... ... ...

then you can see what happens.

We have the uncertainty of what other nations will do.

Will the dollars out of the chain actually?

With respect to the market, that's the question.

So, the trade there, the marketplace, we're going to have a big question in my opinion at the end.

I'm going to have to see.

So you hang the value at the end of the dollar, and then you pay, and they make money.

And then you pay.

So you can take a portion of the money, and you run it down to a 30x, and you run it down to a 30x.

So it's about the same thing.

You run it down to a 50x, and then you put it in a 40x.

And then you pay it.

If that happens,

as you consider the question, for example, of whether to impose any word taxes in one form or another.

Could be that there would be a very major change.

Could be that the dollar action is still an action to be taken.

Speculation subsides.

The United States is saying that the market doesn't change very much.

What changes come that fast?

I think they come fairly fast because of the ways we put in that two or three weeks period to be able to get some reason as to whether or not that was.

At the same time, it's quite a super moment.

We'll wait.

Sit tight.

Sit tight and wait for those events.

Earlier, remember, I was suggesting, especially when we were equating properly, that one possibility would be just to close the code without quiet.

I recognize you can't close it quietly, but that's quietly impossible.

Well, this is exactly what you're getting at.

Exactly, yes.

There is an advantage of separating this, actually, from the domestication of disability.

The important fact is that, you know, I...

I'm glad we thought of the possibility, but I think I was thinking that it might be a rather deep way to blunt a portion of the text we're talking about.

Well, it might even be possible, I don't know, it might even be possible to invoke this gadata, not use it across the board,

I just needed to get that done.

And that's not going to happen.

That's not going to happen, I'm sure.

You guys are going to see it.

I'll take the .

You could, but .

What we saw was an evaluation on a scale that seemed to offer a solution to the broad balance of payment

Devaluation means the price of debt in the tunnel field.

Total for a 10% devaluation.

That's a $200 rise in the price of debt in the tunnel field.

If I turn around, that's a day off.

So maybe that would solve that problem.

But even if all else were solved, we would still want to take action against textile logistics for the purpose of delivering on that promise.

You could do it.

There might be a way of doing it.

You might put them together.

I'm just guessing.

I'm just reaching around here for ideas.

The thing that I did not like about it, and I did not like about it, was mixing a potential negative and unpredictable thing with something that could be otherwise very positive.

It would be a negative unpredictable.

And of course, we'd be running exposed to the wind, which is also very difficult to explain.

The thing which is positive is all the message.

Which is easy to understand.

It just may be, under the circumstances, you just kind of make the argument.

Arguing down the coin.

By the way, a reminder, I think one of his number two things

Right.

From his point of view, whenever I ask him one thing here, suppose that we didn't have this interventional crisis.

Would you want to do these domestic things?

Yes, I would.

I have seized on this international thing as a good vehicle for doing domestic things.

But he has a very positive attitude towards domestic things.

Well, I feel that, too.

I feel that there's a strong reason for doing it.

It has nothing to do with merit.

It's a one-time thing.

They know that.

Well, we don't do it in the Congress, we do it in the courts.

So we just stand by and have that force to do it for all things.

And what we may do, we've lost the favor to as much as we can in the street.

You don't really lose that kind of money made in crime, you know.

I mean, you can still tie it to it as far as it could.

And I think, sort of, a substantive way,

of doing a gold window now in the other two weeks is now better.

Because it gives a chance to see what impact of this is.

And also what you want, and then how much you really should do on the important taxable debt problem.

Another point of the U.N. economy was that closing the gold window could have a highly, for the devaluation of the dollar, would have a highly inflationary effect.

And Connie answered that by saying that the other things that we were doing in the domestic side would have deflationary effects to that.

Would the inflationary effect of closing the gold window be felt within the three weeks to the extent that that balance would get out of balance?

I think that's a hell of a question.

Would it take less than three weeks to have the effect?

Well, that would only be if the second thing sort of came in a rush, namely if people had the thing to go on and make the change rate of some sort.

last year boring against inflation but decided to change the exchange rate rather than fighting inflation and so they think that means they're going to have to say let inflation go and probably they're going to have to do something about waiting for prices and they might as well and then call it.

If you think it means the next three weeks people will raise a lot of prices and they get those price reads, that's possible.

to break off the package as quickly as possible.

We're alone.

We've had one... With my people, I've had one pass.

I've got them coming back with another more operational pass today.

I haven't seen what they're saying.

It's not like that.

After that combination, we did close the door window and...

slap on an immediate wage price increase, and then wait three weeks to come back with your other factors, which would be essentially tax factors, the import tax, the inter-size tax, and the value added.

That's the other way you could break it up.

That's the only other way I think is feasible for you.

New wage price for example close to $100,000 is $100,000.

Pre-wage for now is $100,000.

Tax and business, of course, need some congressional action.

For other things, though, they do not separate tax and the law, so I'm going to go back to the material.

The other possibility would be to close the doors and close the important gates.

And wait for icebergs to all free the boats this time.

And then we could tax them another bite this time.

If you are going to go that far, you could argue that we've done enough.

There's three quarters of the money.

Why not go ahead and say what you're intended to do about taxes and spending?

Another aspect of this is to show that with all of this business on the monetary front and inflation and everything, you're still going to do everything you can to get out of these expenditures.

Thank you very much.

is to say you can solve your balance of payments problem by dealing with inflation.

Dealing with inflation means contracting the economy, sure.

And that's what people will think of if you want to show that that is not what you're thinking of.

You're thinking of the economy as expanding and things like that.

But my view is to say when Congress returns on specific recommendations,

So there's a lot of work to be done on that.

I just think the area

is the question of how much can we take the budget down?

Like, where do you want to take it down?

And we've got to work on that, you know.

It's sort of a more complicated set of decisions than that.

But we've got to make sure that it's backed up.

The disconnecting of gold and monetary action in time from the import tax action.

You really don't know how much of an import tax you put on to see what happens in the rest of the month.

You just don't know what these other governments are going to do.

We find that it's an interesting tax credit.

Well, unfortunately, we find it doesn't produce as much money as we thought it would.

I don't know.

The way I would handle a space program, as I've been thinking about it, is rather than being specific, I would say we're just going to run the space program.

I think it would be extremely depressing right after this national conference to say we're going to stop the manned space and cancel it, and shut it until it's all ensued, and then we can do the answer to the question.

I'd say we're going to handle the problem of space, and we'll find a way to put it in a new way.

What about you doing this?

I don't want to get into the ring with Carter until we know what the hell we want to come out with.

I think that's why I wanted to talk about this.

I think the cracking question is horrible not to add to it.

I mean, horrible.

Temperamentally, it follows up well.

What about your acting archer at this point?

He gets here by you calling on him.

And then, well, maybe Archer will be whacking at that point, at least.

By that time, you'll know about what Archer's views are.

But you'll try on Archer, for example, the idea of where Archer is.

I think the idea that it really works the best is for colonies.

simply put out a statement.

I don't believe the president should go on national television and tell us what to do.

Folks, our dollar isn't worth a dime.

Our dollar is weak, and because of that, I'm going to have to close the door.

And I'm fondly disagreeing with that, with these activists, Volker and all the other states.

You see, they're all, that's their bag.

They're like, you know, you should go on national television.

I don't play at that.

You know, sometimes we play national television.

Sometimes we don't.

This is not a positive story.

The other hand,

I think Conley should just put out a disagreeable sentence to the effect that due to this international speculators, due to the fact that we are going to temporarily

both the goal and the fear, we will be prepared to discuss at the end of the procedure.

I have three points now.

Reason, speculating, follow-up, we're going to work out the monetary system, and then, of course, .

And you tell Arthur that that fits in with his plan.

of maybe you want to have a meeting with the big five, they can do that then.

At that point, my God, they can meet the people and talk to each other with time, right?

What do you have in practice?

Those go when you take a lot of respect for others.

And also you get time, you buy some time to think about it.

And the second thing is that then I believe we should go on the rest of the package.

Uh...

I think, for example, to put the wage price freeze on now, you've got the three weeks of inflation that you have now.

I just can't believe it's going to be all that great.

And I just don't believe everybody's going to jack up prices and the fuck they're going to do.

I don't know, maybe a few.

But you know what, I think that it's very interesting to see Ben when he was about to take back his day.

Yeah, why did he do that?

Price increase.

I saw that the market wouldn't pay for it.

Price increase, that's right.

The market doesn't say that, but it must be that way.

Yeah.

U.S. Steel should have thought of that, shouldn't it?

I think it will.

If you can see it through, see it through.

Now, the other thing, George and me, then, on February, September 7th, I go on and do the other thing, including, I think, something of an important thing.

I must say that there, maybe there's a way to get the textbook presentation done.

On our backs.

Not fully.

Maybe a gap.

We've got to look to see if there's that much money.

On the other hand, if this action doesn't go with the treaty, it does have a significant effect on the general.

We'll have to take another look at how much we want to look the other way.

We're just not actually jacked up.

Price is not in our favor.

But what you really come down to, you give it a double act this way, don't you?

If you devalue an important proposal, an important tax, you don't have to pay.

In fact, if you're cognizant of the two things, I think, the lower the tax, the less there's devaluation and relief.

If you don't have some, it may be that the corrections

the overall flow of foreign commitments and what you want to do about it.

That is, if you have this equation over the long run, that income from trade plus including the currency

plus income from assets held abroad, which is quite high, and equals foreign aid commitments and military commitments abroad.

And in effect, if we want to have, what, a military foreign aid large, that means we have to build up a big trade surplus strength.

And then the question is, how much of a trade surplus is going to other nations in the world?

So it's been allowing us to build up, but it's kind of the pricing that's left, so that structure of government.

They are nearing about an evaluation, because everybody seems to want a third one.

And they recognize, they will be recognized.

The dollar is about to devalue.

I would say the Japanese are better at devaluing again.

When they devalue again, they devalue it against all other currencies, not just the dollar.

And in fact, how they compare with the Germans in the U.S. market, they're all against it.

The value of the dollar changes.

That change affects both the VW and the Toyota in the same way.

So here's the thing here.

Let's go over the window quietly.

This is the irrelevant thing.

It can be done with more or less fanfare, but there's no way.

just do it and not have any discussions, not have any explanations, and not have any sort of kind of talk that is an effort to explain to people and reassure people and connect them with other things that are being done and so on.

It's just that this is, you know, it has to be available in some manner to be questioned and try to get a line out on it.

Well, then...

How much does he raise the first amount of money?

I would say the position, I would think, is by and large the same as the Secretary.

You're saying you're going to take major steps to deal with the election.

Is that right?

It's a tricky question.

He said, we're just going to take some major steps to tackle the problem.

I suppose he could be collective in the sense of saying, we're going to take major budgetary steps to tackle the problem of spotlighting wages, prices, prices.

I don't know if anybody has that idea.

No question.

You're going to have to sail something through.

Otherwise, we'll allow the story to be written entirely by those who will be panicked.

Send a few stories around other than a panicky start.

I know there's a goal.

We're all going to have to until the treatment.

And that's the state that's going to be vaccinating those who go with other than the economy.

I think we've brought it to a close in the camp at this point.

Could I ask you then to see if you could spend a half hour or an hour here.

I'm trying to agree on our meeting tomorrow, and actually, I don't know.

I don't know if you should be calling me again.

I think the people that should make this decision basically are you, myself, Arthur, the others, they'll come along.

I mean, I'm proud of you.

I don't know if you want an extra comedy on Booker there, but let's handle him in our own way.

He's got other... Booker is so obsessed with all these international things.

So when you, when Conley gets here, when you hear, when you talk to Booker, you definitely say to Booker that you should close it over tonight, right?

Tonight or tomorrow.

He always does that.

There's a lot of big actions on the domestic front end.

He's taking it now.

It's not possible, as you think.

Basically, he thinks we should solve this problem through action but almost because I read your feeling as being that we are not going to sacrifice expansion of domestic economy, never, to this international business.

We're going to never be around that.

So, no, I think we're going to fall.

problems to deal with the inflationary problems domestically or empirically.

And even the expansion of buildings and practices for data as the most important thing.

I'll just tell Arthur that I'm coming over to your request.

I don't know.

I'm trying to figure out the best way to develop this.

I didn't say you've got drugs.

You've got to come back and have a feed.

That's the only way to get out of here.

I know.

And, um, so you make it, uh, make it, in fact, McConnell won't get it, but we'll find out in a few minutes.

So, how long does he last?

Four whole times?

Well, 45 minutes.

We're out of time.

Well, that's a plain term, isn't it?

Okay.

All right, we'll say 515.

And you just tell McConnell, just make the 515 negative.

You kind of leave there at 5 o'clock.

And then he would bring Arthur along and say, all right, how about before we go, let's wait through this booker.

What did this booker, what did he really think that he could put all this together in 24 hours?

Well, he thinks that he has to put it together a lot.

And I said, bring that black booker over that you don't care about anybody.

I said, well, I don't see why we've got an operation price increase.

And he said, well, we have arguments, pro and con.

That's not the question.

The question is, suppose you're deciding pro.

Then, operationally, how are you doing?

And what are the problems?

And how are you going to take care of the gold miners on strike?

That's the question.

Do you want to ask him something?

We're just finishing and he's got to go see Burns in a minute.

They will get you.

And he hasn't thought it all through, that's my point.

No, he hasn't thought it all through.

He's got the system in place, and he hasn't dealt with it as much as I have.

I've asked him questions, and he didn't know that everybody's got to ask, and he's not asking himself those questions either.

It's like so many of these people, George and I, you know, aren't resolved to this this way.

We throw this idea out and say, well, let's just freeze everything.

Or let's have a voluntary board or something.

And I say, all right, what?

How?

What are we going to do?

And by God, they don't know.

They haven't followed through, have they?

Okay.

In terms of, I think it's like Allison here.

Yes.

I think there's a lot to be said for having a meeting that includes Byrd, McConnell, myself, and McCracken.

I agreed so did you.

I think we have had that meeting.

I agree.

So that that has been done.

from a substantive standpoint, who kind of intellectually has a good contribution here.

I think Herbst and I have a lot to contribute.

I agree.

You've got a hard time.

I agree.

Whoever is going to work on the programming of this won't be locked in a room to work on it.

It would be one that I would suggest and perhaps the man-to-man would be able to do that.

Now, what about .

Yeah, that's right.

Otherwise, .

He's got to be in on the whole.

His contribution is not going to be as solid here as it is yet.

He's got to be .

All right, that's fine.

Try to sell Arthur, or at least tell Arthur to come up with something.

The difficulty within you, I often find, is that Arthur comes up with a great idea for something that just you can't do, and the rest of us have to go take the responsibility for it.

God damn it, I want him to recognize he's got just two or three choices here, and which one is he going to come up for, huh?

All right, also, Arthur, tell us what the problem is with Arthur.

Thank you.

Okay, this is the button.

It relates to Jefferson County.

We don't have any details about this particular case.

I'm told that there is a hearing in the upper majority in the lower district court in Alabama.

What we say today is very simple.

It's a matter of course.

I don't want you to get into the business of making the law.

The Attorney General.

We simply say no.

But it's appropriate to pardon them.

We'll be looking into it.

I understand there's a hearing in the schedule.

Well, and it's a court matter.

I didn't get an idea of the matter.

We don't have the information.

I don't want to comment on it this time.

Or is that what they want to say?

That's what they want to say.

Fine.

Now, then I will immediately follow up a question.

Well, what if?

I won't comment on that kind of a question.

Attorney General, I agree with what you said.

to go out and say, right, this is the federal law, this is the statement that he intends to enforce the law, whether it would be to force the law or whether it would be to compromise.

That's what he wants.

Now, difficult question to answer here.

Well, Ron, hasn't the president said he intends to enforce the law?

Hasn't he said that consistently?

There, it seems to me that I have to say, well, what the president has said before.

Do you know what the president said?

No, you don't know.

In other words, if I wobble on that, then we lose the whole thing.

I would just simply say that you're not going to comment on the matter because it's in the courts.

Can't you do that?

Well, I'm trying to see if I can say that.

The question, even whether it's in the courts, apparently... Oh, I see.

Apparently...

Well, you don't have the facts yet.

Jefferson County has an order.

You don't have the facts?

What about that?

What about the thing you, our statement, the statement that we have made is crystal clear, the one with Mr. Burr, the one, you know the one I referred to, Mr. Burr.

It's absolutely clear.

We stand on that statement as far as this is a second case.

I'm not going to comment on it until we get to the fact that we're not commenting on it.

I don't have any other questions on it.

Step up.

And then I go back.

Here's our statement.

This is our statement of policy.

We will carry this out.

But as far as an individual case is concerned, this one or any other, I'm not going to comment because we don't have all the facts on it.

I think that's the best way, Ron.

I just wouldn't get into this.

What he wants is an issue to see.

And Wallace wants you to sit in the fight to help with this on the report.

If I am asked, would I carry out the law?

Sure.

Are you seeing the president's statement?

Sure.

Your statement is absolutely clear and very, very correct.

Thank you.

What do you like?

I need your letters.

Sure.

I'm a school student right by the school.

Which could result in death or criminal injuries.

Well, you see what happens.

I don't care.

I think, really, if you could always go back to what Ian previous just said, he said, I'm not going to add to that.

You're not going to comment on every individual case that comes up.

It's as if the general principles were followed.

You don't have to go back.

It was here, his invoking of civil rights powers.

Well, let us see.

Turn your head on.

What do these gestures say?

All right.

And what are they going to do about it?

Okay.

I'm sorry, but did he play it all right?

Yes, sir.

Good.

He's taking beautiful cases.

He's got a girl who's got a school of four blocks from her home.

She's a music student.

I know that music is a school of 20 miles away.

She has to give up.

Sheldon's very good at this.

Cool.

And the other thing is Art will come in and point out and spend an hour talking about why he was right all the time and why we ought to do something that we know we cannot do.

It's impossible.

One weakness.

He kind of likes to be panicked.

Well, it's like on the Cavalry Kings, you have to cast Connolly Tennis, and he comes very easily.

You're in a pushing corner, like Chuck said, free, free on free.

Connolly Tennis, too.

But if you get, on the other hand, if you're in a position of power, you get cured of that pretty fast.

I've never been that way myself, but because I'm too cautious, I'll make the big play, I'll take the bull, I'll take the big risk, but after you've got a dam, if I'm going to be rushing around by a bunch of little pinch fleas, I just really must go, let's go, let's go, what are we waiting for?

Crack, crack, let's be out there.

And as governor, you can do that, but as president, you can't.

That's why it's good to take a big move, something like Jerry Wallace, he's a jackass, irresponsible, but it's a damn good move to bring the day.

I'd like to do that on the screen, on the screen, on the camera.

We know our plan.

We're going to go over it.

Well, it's terrible.

It's just wrong.

It's a wrong thing to do.

We lost this boy, and now we're running broke.

Hell yeah.

All the stops.

Boundaries.

We stand here an hour, and they just go, you know, through the stoplights.

Drive a few pounds, until they pick him up.

And the kid says, get out of the way.

I said, the school does, but you couldn't be walking the school.

Well, I don't know quite how.

Well, we don't have a very good answer here.

Unfortunately, I don't have any.

I don't have a whole lot of confidence in Volcker.

Conway doesn't know any more about it than I do.

That's our problem.

But, you know, it's funny.

There's very few people who know.

They're all over the lot.

A lot of people think they do.

A lot of people think they do, but they're all over the lot.

He wants to raise the price of gold.

That's what he said.

We're not going to price it.

We're going to raise the price of gold now.

And if you do that, it'll take the Congress six months to debate.

And we'll have a lot of that discussion.

They look all the way over here.

It's exciting.

It's exciting today.

It's exciting.

It's exciting today.

Thank you.

Nixon, Shultz & Haldeman on Economic Policy and Dollar Convertibility

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Nixon Library Finding Aid

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Also recorded on August 12, 1971

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Nixon, Shultz & Haldeman on Economic Policy and Dollar Convertibility

AI Summary

Audio

NARA Description

Nixon Library Finding Aid

Transcript (AI-generated)

Also recorded on August 12, 1971

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Cite this conversation